"The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging. Substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth. If these trends continue, they could substantially dampen economic prospects. Rising trade costs—particularly in countries implementing new tariffs—are likely to fuel inflation, although this may be partly offset by softer commodity prices. Risks to the outlook remain substantial. Key concerns include further escalations or sudden shifts in trade policies, more cautious behaviour from consumers and businesses, and continued repricing of risk in financial markets. Inflation may also stay elevated for longer than anticipated, especially if inflation expectations continue to rise. On the upside, an early reversal of recent trade barriers could boost economic growth and help ease inflationary pressures."

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ISBN (PDF) : 9789264332911