Documents fiscal policy 777 results

"Die stark expansive Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank zeigt positive Wirkungen. Die Zinsen sind weiter gesunken, die Kreditvergabe erholt sich etwas und der Euro hat abgewertet. Allerdings ist die Inflation weiterhin deutlich zu niedrig und die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung zu schwach, um eine zügige Verringerung der Produktionslücke im Euroraum zu ermöglichen. Erschwerend ist, dass im Falle einer weiteren Abwertung die globalen Ungleichgewichte und die Schwäche der Weltwirtschaft verstärkt würden. Die Geldpolitik benötigt daher dringend Unterstützung durch die Fiskalpolitik.Der Euroraum hat zudem ein zentrales Problem, das nicht nur die Effektivität der Geldpolitik beeinträchtigt, sondern auch die Fiskalpolitik behindert und darüber hinaus die künftige Stabilität des Euroraums gefährdet. Mit der Entscheidung, Staatsanleihen als sichere Anlagen aufzugeben, verliert der Euroraum einen wesentlichen Stabilitätsanker einer entwickelten Volkswirtschaft."

"Two recent proposals for overcoming the euro area crisis make the case for monetary financing of the public sector. Watt (2015) proposes that the ECB finances public investment directly, Pâris and Wyplosz (2014) contend that public debt may be effectively restructured by burying parts of it in the balance sheet of the Eurosystem. Both proposals place the ECB at the center of matters generally considered to be fiscal in order to circumvent existing fiscal and political constraints. This paper argues that neither monetary debt retirement nor monetary financing of EU investment are a free lunch. Both proposals fudge the line between monetary and fiscal policy thereby ignoring valid reasons for separating these two macroeconomic policy areas. All monetary policy measures impact on government finances; whether monetary policy actions cross the fiscal policy line, however, depends primarily on the underlying motivation of the action. In the case of the two proposals the motivation is unambiguously fiscal."

"In the face of the perceived high public and private debt levels and sluggish recovery that has followed the financial crisis of 2007-08, there have been calls for greater fiscal-monetary coordination to stimulate nominal demand. Policy debates have been focused upon the inflationary expectations that may be generated by monetary financing or related policies, consistent with New Consensus Macroeconomics theoretical frameworks. Historical examples of fiscal-monetary policy coordination have been largely neglected, along with alternative theoretical views, such as post-Keynesian perspectives that emphasise uncertainty and demand rather than rational expectations. This paper begins to address this omission. First, we provide an overview of the holdings of government debt by both central banks and commercial banks as an imperfect but still informative proxy for fiscal-monetary coordination in advanced economies in the 20th century. Second, we develop a new typology of forms of fiscal-monetary coordination that includes both direct and less direct forms of monetary financing, illustrating this with case-study examples. In particular, we focus on the 1930s-1970s period when central banks and ministries of finance cooperated closely, with less independence accorded to monetary policy and greater weight attached to fiscal policy. We find a number of cases where fiscal-monetary coordination proved useful in stimulating economic growth, supporting industrial policy objectives and managing public debt without excessive inflation."

"Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding both of the pragmatic constraints of real-world policy making and the analytical tools that enhance inquiry and inform debates. The authors draw on their experiences as academics and as policy makers in European and international institutions to offer a deep dive into the rationale, design, and implementation of economic policy across a range of policy domains: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, financial stability, taxes, long-term growth and inequality. Highlighting the ways experience, theories, and institutions interact, each chapter starts with historical examples of dilemmas and shows how theoretical approaches can help policy makers understand what is at stake and identify solutions. The authors highlight the differences between the positive approach to economic policy (how do policies impact the economy), the normative approach (what should be policymakers' objectives and against which criteria should their action be judged), and the political-economy constraints (what are the limits and obstacles to public intervention). They rely on the most recent academic research, providing technical boxes while explaining the mechanisms in plain English in the text, with appropriate illustrations. This new edition is informed by such important recent developments as the Great Recession, the strains on the European Union and the Euro, the challenges of public and private debt, the successes and setbacks to emerging markets, changes to labor markets along with the increased attention to inequality, the debates on secular stagnation and its implications for conventional and unconventional monetary policy, the re-regulation of the financial sector, the debt overhang in both the public and the private sector."

"The last decade has witnessed a significant revival of belief in the efficacy of fiscal policy and mainstream economics is now reverting to the standard positions of mid-1970s Keynesianism. On the coattails of that revival, increased attention is being given to the doctrine of Modern Money Theory (MMT) which makes exaggerated claims about the economic costs and capability of money-financed fiscal policy. MMT proponents are now asserting society can enjoy a range of large government spending programs for free via money financed deficits, which has made it very popular with progressive policy advocates. This paper examines MMT's assertion and rejects the claim that the US can enjoy a massive permanent free program spree that does not cause inflation. As has long been known by Keynesians, in a static economy money financed deficits can be used to finance programs when the economy is away from the full employment - inflation boundary. However, that window will be temporary to the extent that those deficits drive the economy to full employment. Since the programs are permanent they have to be paid for with taxes or they will generate inflation. That is the economic logic behind the unpleasant Keynesian arithmetic."

"The global economy is facing mounting challenges amidst the largest energy market shock since the 1970s and the cost-of-living crisis for many households from rising inflation pressures. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2 highlights the unusually imbalanced and fragile outlook, the significant downside risks associated with energy market developments and rising financial vulnerabilities as interest rates are raised, and the associated policy challenges. Well-designed and timely policy actions are required to maintain economic stability, enhance energy security and strengthen the prospects for future growth.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies."

"The global economy continues to confront the challenges of persistent inflation and subdued growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt. The slowdown is projected to be mild, with continued disinflation, but a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the potential for disruptions to commodity markets and trade from heightened geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, and the extent to which excess household savings will be run down. Key policy priorities are to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, address mounting fiscal pressures, revive global trade and improve the prospects for sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies."

"This paper explores the fiscal implications for countries of global climate mitigation in the medium term. If climate action is unilateral, it might be limited in scope and rely more on subsidies and spending to avert political constraints. This can put fiscal sustainability at risk. Coordinated carbon pricing or other mitigation policy can more effectively put the world on a path to 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, as agreed in Paris in 2015, while helping manage fiscal and political constraints. Coordination could be initiated by large players, such as China, the United States, India, the African Union, and the European Union. The authors find that the implications for fiscal revenues over time are shaped by a combination of rising carbon prices, the gradual erosion of existing fuel tax bases, and possible revenue sharing arrangements. Public spending rises during the transition to build green public infrastructure, promote innovation, and support clean technology deployment, although much of this spending could be more efficiently financed through higher sectoral prices and taxes rather than through the general budget. Countries will also need funds for compensating vulnerable households, industries, and poor countries. With well-designed climate-fiscal policy relying on carbon pricing, global decarbonization will have anything from moderately positive to moderately negative impacts on fiscal balances in high-income countries. For middle and low-income countries, net fiscal impacts are generally positive and significant. Hence, as mitigation strategies improve fiscal balances, they can accommodate development spending needs. Revenue sharing at the global level would make an historical contribution to breaching the financial divide between rich and poor countries."

"This paper describes the latest update of the OECD's long-term scenarios, which are done every 2-3 years to quantify some of the most important long-term macroeconomic trends and policy challenges facing the global economy. For the first time, this update incorporates the effect of the low-carbon energy transition. The study first presents a baseline projection that acts as a business-as-usual scenario against which the economic effects of the transition can be gauged. Next, it outlines extensions to the OECD global long-term model (LTM) to consider energy use and associated CO2 emissions and describes an alternative stylised scenario in which OECD and non-OECD G20 countries successfully transition to low-carbon energy in a way broadly consistent with a net-zero target for greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These extensions rely on a variety of sources, but most crucially on simulations of CO2 mitigation costs with the OECD's ENV-Linkages model. Finally, the model's extensions are used to explore some fiscal implications of the energy transition, in particular how the negative economic effects of carbon mitigation could be alleviated by fiscal or other structural reforms."

"The global economy proved resilient in 2023, but there are signs that growth is easing as restrictive monetary policy takes effect. Global growth is projected to remain moderate in 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining towards target in most countries by 2025. Key near term risks include high geopolitical tensions, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East were to disrupt energy markets, and uncertainty about the strength of the ongoing impact from higher interest rates.

The Interim Report says that monetary policy should remain prudent to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, though policy interest rates can be lowered as inflation declines. Governments need to focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, including through measures to reduce future spending pressures. Structural policy reforms are needed to strengthen the foundations for sustainable growth, with key priorities being to accelerate decarbonisation, revive global trade and improve educational outcomes.

The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2 (Number 114)."