Documents macroeconomics 732 results

"Following a prolonged and broad-based stagnation, the EU economy resumed growth in the first quarter of this year. As projected in spring, the expansion continued at a subdued, yet steady, pace throughout the second and third quarters, amidst further abating inflationary pressures. The conditions for a mild acceleration of domestic demand appear in place, despite heightened uncertainty. This Autumn Forecast projects real GDP growth in 2024 at 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. For the EU, this is 0.1 pps. lower with respect to spring, while it is unchanged for the euro area. Growth in the EU is expected to pick up to 1.5% in 2025, as consumption is shifting up a gear and investment is set to rebound from the contraction of 2024. In 2026, economic activity is projected to expand by 1.8%, on the back of continued expansion of demand. Growth in the euro area is set to follow similar dynamics and attain 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The disinflationary process that started towards end-2022 continued over the summer. Notwithstanding a slight pick-up in October, largely driven by energy prices, headline inflation in the euro area is set to more than halve in 2024, from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4%, before easing more gradually to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. In the EU, the disinflation process is set to be even sharper in 2024, with headline inflation falling to 2.6%, from 6.4% in 2023, and to continue easing to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026."

"This paper evaluates claims about the large macroeconomic implications of new advances in Artificial intelligence (AI). It starts from a task-based model of AI's effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the task level, its macroeconomic consequences will be given by a version of Hulten's theorem: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and aggregate productivity gains can be estimated by what fraction of tasks are impacted and average task-level cost savings. Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear non-trivial but modest – no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years. The paper then argues that even these estimates could be exaggerated, because early evidence is from easy-to-learn tasks, whereas some of the future effects will come from hard-to-learn tasks, where there are many context-dependent factors affecting decision-making and no objective outcome measures from which to learn successful performance. Consequently, predicted TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.53%. I also explore AI's wage and inequality effects. I show theoretically that even when AI improves the productivity of low-skill workers in certain tasks (without creating new tasks for them), this may increase rather than reduce inequality. Empirically, I find that AI advances are unlikely to increase inequality as much as previous automation technologies because their impact is more equally distributed across demographic groups, but there is also no evidence that AI will reduce labour income inequality. Instead, AI is predicted to widen the gap between capital and labour income. Finally, some of the new tasks created by AI may have negative social value (such as the design of algorithms for online manipulation), and I discuss how to incorporate the macroeconomic effects of new tasks that may have negative social value."

"Depuis les premiers puits désormais à sec jusqu'à la quête frénétique d'un après-pétrole, du cartel secret des firmes anglo-saxonnes (les "Sept Soeurs") jusqu'au pétrole de schiste, Or noir retrace l'irrésistible ascension de la plus puissante des industries. Dans cette fresque passionnante, on croise les personnages centraux des cent dernières années - Churchill, Clemenceau, Roosevelt, Staline, Hitler, De Gaulle, Kissinger, sans oublier les présidents George Bush père et fils mais aussi John Rockefeller, probablement l'homme le plus riche de tous les temps, ainsi que des personnalités moins connues ayant joué des rôles décisifs, tels Calouste Gulbenkian, Abdullah al-Tariki ou Marion King Hubbert.
Ce livre éclaire d'un jour inattendu des événements cruciaux- l'émergence de l'URSS, la crise de 1929, les deux guerres mondiales, les chocs pétroliers, les guerres d'Irak, la crise de 2008, etc. -, bousculant au passage beaucoup de fausses certitudes. Le pétrole, notre source primordiale et tarissable de puissance, est présent à l'origine des plus grands déchaînements du siècle passé, comme du sucre versé sur une fourmilière.
Jusqu'à une date récente, l'emprise du pétrole s'oubliait ; elle allait tellement de soi. Croissance, climat, guerre, terrorisme ; cette emprise ressurgit aujourd'hui à travers de gigantesques menaces. Or notre avenir dépend de celui que nous donnerons au pétrole, ou bien de celui qu'il nous imposera. La fin du pétrole, en tant que carburant de l'essor de l'humanité, devrait se produire bien avant que ce siècle ne s'achève.
De gré ou de force. Et nul ne peut dire où cette fin va nous conduire..."

"The distinctive feature of this book is that it provides a unified framework for the analysis of short- and medium-run macroeconomics. This gives students a model that they can use themselves to understand a wide range of real-world macroeconomic behaviour and policy issues. The authors introduce a new graphical model (IS/PC/MR) based on the 3-equation New Keynesian model used in modern macroeconomics. The three equations are BL the IS curve BL the Phillips curve and BL an interest rate-based monetary policy rule. The use of a common framework throughout for closed and open economies helps readers develop the economic intuition with which to address a diversity of macroeconomic problems. Applied chapters show how the models can be used to analyse performance in OECD economies over the past twenty-five years. The chapters on growth present an in-depth coverage of the Solow-Swan, endogenous and Schumpeterian models that allow the reader to understand how these approaches can be used to answer the big questions of growth: why some countries are rich and others, poor; why some catch up and others do not. Since the book is based on the mainstream 3-equation model used at the research frontier, the book gives students the economics background necessary for accessing advanced macroeconomics. It is also designed to appeal to graduate students, non-specialists in macroeconomics, professional economists and those from related disciplines who want a guide to the complexities of modern macroeconomics and to understand contemporary policy debates. Online Resource Centre For lecturers: password-protected solutions and diagrams from the text. For students: exercises and checklist questions. "

"The COVID-19 pandemic will cast a long shadow over the world's economies and the economic outlook is very uncertain. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy and puts forward projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the current policy challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies."

"This brief analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It links the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040 to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change.

The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant; as the economy gradually recovers, emissions are projected to increase again, with growth rates going back to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1-3%, with stronger effects for pressures related to capital-intensive economic activities."

"Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005)."

"For all the long-term benefits of urgently addressing climate change, economic policymakers must plan for a challenging transition to carbon neutrality. Pretending that the costs will be trivial is dangerous. Estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations indicate that emergency action is indispensable to limit catastrophic climate disruption. Because of the magnitude of the efforts involved and the pace of the transformation implied, the accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy is bound to have serious, immediate economic implications, warns Pisani-Ferry. Some equipment will lose economic value. Some plants will have to close. Employees will have to be reallocated to other occupations. Investment will have to increase, to repair or rebuild infrastructure and the capital stock. He argues that so far policymakers have not addressed these implications in a systematic manner. It is high time policymakers realize that climate policy is also macroeconomic policy and design transition strategies now."

"The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.

This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies."

"The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.

This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies."