"Europe is at the beginning of a massive structural change. The effects of increasing climate change are already becoming apparent. There is widespread social consensus that a climate-neutral transformation of the economy and society is necessary. Yet, the conditions for a successful transformation in Europe are challenging. Europe does not have energy self-sufficiency, and it has no prospects to achieve it in the foreseeable future, unlike its main competitors. Moreover, the Russian attack on Ukraine and its consequences have increased the prices of energy; natural gas as a transitional fuel for the transformation is no longer as readily available as it was. The energy transition towards renewables and green hydrogen must be accelerated accordingly. However, this acceleration cannot be ramped up without limitations. There is a lack of efficient administrative processes, for example in planning and tendering, as well as a lack of financial resources, technological components and essential raw materials. And there is an increasing shortage of adequately qualified professionals. Europe's competitiveness has not historically been based on low electricity prices. Other regions have long had comparative advantages in this area. So far, Europe has been able to compensate for this disadvantage through other factors. These include a good infrastructure, a high-quality research and science landscape, and skilled workers. Europe must ensure that it does not fall behind in these areas. This would have an impact on international competitiveness, labour markets, state coffers and ultimately also on prosperity and democratic stability. Accordingly, the labour market and employment, including education and training, must be at the centre of political and public attention. The choices we make now will determine prosperity and security in Europe in the coming decades. At the same time, these questions are closely intertwined with fundamental decisions concerning the future of Europe as an economic and industrial location. Here as well, fundamental decisions of immense proportions are at stake. Trade unions and industry associations are worried about competitiveness and job retention in domestic production. Concern regarding companies and even entire industries relocating, combined with the fear of not having access to sustainable, climate-neutral technologies, is driving the resurgence of structural and industrial policy in Europe. However, financial resources are limited. How much is Europe willing to invest to maintain or rebuild key industrial sectors in the region, both as quickly and as climate-neutral as possible? Should the European industrial architecture be more strongly adapted to the potentials of the individual Member States? Should energy-intensive production be relocated within Europe or should it be newly established in order to prevent it from migrating to other regions? Or is it enough to focus on sufficiently diversified supply relationships, while selectively promoting sectors with comparative advantages, such as cutting-edge technology? Or does Europe want to – and is it able to – establish the mass production of climate-neutral key technologies for its domestic market and the world market? So far, this debate has not been conducted strategically, neither in Brussels nor in the Member States, let alone among the Member States. However, European labour markets depend heavily on the outcome of such debates and the industrial and structural policy decisions based on them. The same applies to reforms in employment policies. A study like this one can only provide limited information about the European labour market in 2030 or 2050. It can show scenarios, clarify forecasts and provide important indications. Whichever industrial policy path Europe decides to take, the effects on jobs and employment will be massive. But whether the desired industrial policy paths can realistically be taken at all depends on the availability of sufficiently qualified and motivated employees. The climate-neutral transformation and its effects on the labour market and employment has been discussed for some time, generating some controversy. Depending on the orientation and affiliation to certain sectors, there have been warnings of massive job losses in particularly affected sectors in the past, contrasted with references to true “green” job miracles in the future. The second level of this structural change, however has received little attention so far. It is not only a question of “old” jobs disappearing, for example in the coal industry, or of new jobs in battery production. The restructuring will change the requirements profile for a large number of jobs; INTRODUCTION Introduction 3 the majority of jobs will stay, but new knowledge and skills will be demanded. The actors involved must sufficiently pre - pare themselves for this. In the first part of this study, we want to outline the current status of employment in relevant sectors affected the most by the restructuring, as well as possible future development paths. We equally want to shed light on the effects on the labour market and employment in general. Precise projections are scarce for many sectors. It is also clear that data, if issued by industry associations, must often be viewed in their specific perspective. Associations for climate-neutral technologies generally assume favourable scenarios and, accordingly, predict positive employment developments. This is logical and understandable because they call for favourable political and financial framework conditions and, based on this, hold out on the prospect of a positive performance in the labour market. By contrast, industries put under pressure by the restructur - ing are more likely to emphasise the feared loss of jobs in or - der to underpin the demand for corresponding protection or adjustment measures. The comparable and general nature of the figures is limited due to the different sectoral coverage, time horizons and political expansion scenarios in the documents analysed. There - fore, in the second part, qualitative interviews are used to discuss assessments of the current and expected future labour market situation, as well as strategy-building processes for climate-neutral transformation. Semi-structured inter - views were conducted with a total of 45 trade unionists and labour market experts in 18 European countries. Based on the secondary analysis and the contents of the interviews, recommendations are formulated in the last part."

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