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The insider-outsider divide and economic voting: testing a new theory with German electoral data

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Article

Marx, Paul

Socio-Economic Review

2016

14

1

January

97-118

precarious employment ; labour market segmentation ; election ; politics

Germany

Labour market

https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwu022

English

Bibliogr.

"Adding to the recent debate on insider-outsider politics, the article provides a novel theory of how non-standard employment affects voting behavior. While existing theories stress effects on ideological position and rely on a spatial model of party choice, it argues that labor market status can also affect variables relevant in a valence model. Based on the concept of relative deprivation, it argues that non-standard workers with a poor job situation tend to hold the government responsible and punish it at the polls. The article makes a theoretical contribution by integrating elements from political economy, electoral behavior and social psychology. The argument is tested for temporary workers in the 2009 German general election. The findings lend support to the theory: compared to permanent workers, temporary workers in this election were more likely to hold the government responsible for their poor economic situation and vote against it."

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