"This paper assesses the risks posed to European workers by Donald Trump's erratic and disruptive trade policy.

First, it provides an overview of the main characteristics of EU-US trade. The US is the top export destination for the EU, in particular regarding goods exports, and the country with which the EU also has a persistent and substantial trade surplus in goods that reached nearly €200 billion in 2024. One third of this is offset by a US surplus in services trade. It also demonstrates that individual sectors and Member States feature very different levels of exposure to US exports. In goods (on which the tariffs are applied), the share of manufacturing is as high as 89% of which automotives, machinery, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals make up the bulk. As regards countries, Germany, Italy and Ireland are the biggest exporters to the US with a combined share of 55% of the EU total.

Second, the paper seeks to provide an estimate for how the introduction of substantial tariffs might affect European workers. Given the exposure outlined in the first section, it examines how a possible 20% general tariff would hit the EU economy and how many jobs in the EU may be placed at risk. For this, an estimate is developed based on earlier studies and modelling results, and then linked to total manufacturing employment. The proposed tariffs represent a substantial hit to manufacturing employment and would be regionally concentrated. The calculation does not take into account the effect of the 25% tariff currently in place for automotive, steel and aluminium products; for these, brief reference is made to separate estimates.

The necessary policy response cannot be limited to trade policy reactions but should provide targeted support for those sectors, regions and workers particularly affected. Furthermore, these actions need to act as a wake-up call to implement more general measures to boost investment and strengthen the resilience of the EU economy."

Support: Digital;Paper

ISBN (PDF) : 1994-4454

Legal deposit : D/2025/10.574/18