Documents European Centre for Political Studies, Brussels 163 results

"A deep, comprehensive and ambitious TTIP should not undermine or otherwise negatively affect the WTO and its signatories. Among other things, this means that trade diversion ought to be minimised and positive spillovers stimulated. The present CEPS Special Report provides some elementary quantification, which helps to understand the economic incentives for third countries to seek regulatory alignment with TTIP results, where relevant, and for which TTIP should be ‘open'. It focuses on ‘indirect' spillovers and employs a rather aggregate economic approach. We find that, of three groups of countries that are important for trade with the EU and the US, the ‘closest' neighbours (NAFTA, EEA, Switzerland and Turkey) exhibit powerful incentives to align so as to benefit from positive spillovers. This is less clear for two other groups. Of the (seven) ‘biggest traders' (in manufactured goods, for which spillovers matter most), China turns out to have the greatest interest in alignment in selected sectors, followed by Israel, Japan and South Korea. Whereas the latter three either have or are negotiating FTAs with the US and the EU, precisely China has none and remains outside TPP as well. In terms of sectors, the chemical sector followed by electronic equipment are by far the most important, with agro-products and fish as a good third (SPS issues). However, in chemicals and electrical equipment, the TTIP negotiations so far, and recent US/EU regulatory cooperation, do not indicate an ambitious approach, which could reduce regulatory barriers to market access drastically."

"The EU 2020 Agenda has taken an important step forward by setting the target for tertiary graduation rates at an ambitious 40%. This paper finds that many European countries, however, including the largest economy – Germany – will not be able to meet this target. Moreover, the crucial topic of educational quality is not even touched upon. Comparing the EU with China in total numbers, the authors find that China's education system already produces the same number of graduates with tertiary education as the whole EU15. Given the large output of graduates, which is the key to productive spending on R&D, this means that China is likely to soon become a growing power in innovation. Initially the country is expected to concentrate on incremental innovation, with radical innovation to come only later and it is here, the authors warn, that the quality of the university system might represent a major obstacle in the Chinese government's efforts to close the gap with the US and the EU15 in terms of innovation potential."

"In response to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, EU member states put various tools in place to support employment, from traditional short-time work (STW) schemes and wage subsidy (WS) schemes to new income support schemes for self-employed and atypical workers.

The European Union offered financial support to these schemes through the creation of a new financial assistance facility – temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) – with a capacity of €100 billion to be distributed in the form of loans to those countries that requested it. As of May 2021, 19 member states have obtained financial support from SURE for a total of almost €95 billion. Despite its smooth functioning and success, SURE remains a temporary mechanism linked to the pandemic. In the (unfortunate) case of future crises, the EU will not have a similar tool to provide immediate support to countries in need. As already advanced in 2020, we argue that SURE should become a permanent mechanism."

"The Covid-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on EU integration, and on the role of the EU in the global governance context. In this report, we present four possible scenarios that may materialize in the coming years, and up to 2040, by using an ‘alternative futures' approach. This is an exploratory method deployed to develop a better understanding of what may yet happen, as opposed to postulating what is most likely to happen.

The project included two digital workshops with the goal to develop a set of scenarios examining the impact of Covid-19 on the potential futures for EU integration. The scenarios, set in the year 2040, aim to communicate a series of alternative worlds that might emerge from developments of internal and external factors. We describe an ‘Optimistic New Deal' scenario, which portrays a strong EU backed by Member States and leading the world towards tackling global challenges; a ‘Wretched fortress' scenario, in which the EU faces severe difficulties due to rising Euroscepticism and a significant slowdown in the process of integration; a ‘United Force' scenario, with the EU focusing on a limited number of global challenges and Member States relying on inter-governmental agreements for a wide array of policy domains; and a ‘Chinese province' scenario, in which the EU splits, and the Member States that remain merge with a Eurasian bloc under the leadership of an increasingly eco-authoritarian China.

The report then explores the consequences of these scenarios for the domains of development and health policy."

"One of the most significant pieces of EU legislation that will be finalised over the coming months is the AI Act, which is still a source of heated debate among policymakers and stakeholders. One of the key issues being discussed is how the Act should define Artificial Intelligence. In this short CEPS Explainer, Andrea Renda and Alex Engler argue in favour of a broader definition of AI, with a high degree of autonomy given to a dedicated AI Office to tailor the Act's application to the specificities of algorithms in individual sectors and use cases."

"Over recent years, EU actorness has increased when it comes to legal authority, autonomy, external recognition and attractiveness, while internal cohesion among EU Member States has dwindled. Two case studies, on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and on standards for sustainability reporting, show the varying level of the EU's effectiveness in sustainable development policy.

This CEPS In-Depth Analysis report analyses the EU's capability to act and be effective in sustainable development governance, looking at the period from the 2000s to today. It finds that several factors will affect the EU's ability to pursue the SDGs in the near future.

Depending on the global momentum around ambitious reforms, the EU may be able to implant its agenda into global agreements. Internal dynamics will also determine whether the EU will be able to retain sufficient authority, autonomy and cohesion to effectively project its agenda on a global scale.

This report is part of a series drawing on the outcomes of the EU-funded TRIGGER (Trends in Global Governance and Europe's Role) project that ran from 2018 to 2022.

Using the conceptual framework developed as part of TRIGGER, this report moves beyond observing the characteristics of the EU as an actor to explore its actorness/effectiveness over time in a specific policy domain – this case, the Sustainable Development Goals."

"Transforming the linear economy, which has remained the dominant model since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, into a circular one is by no means an easy task. Such a radical change entails a major transformation of our current production and consumption patterns, which in turn will have a significant impact on the economy, the environment and society. Understanding these impacts is crucial for researchers as well as for policy-makers engaged in designing future policies in the field. This requires developing an in-depth knowledge of the concept of the circular economy, its processes and their expected effects on sectors and value chains. This paper reviews the growing literature on the circular economy with the aim of improving our understanding of the concept as well as its various dimensions and expected impacts. On the basis of this review, it attempts to map the processes involved and their application in different sectors. The paper suggests that research on the circular economy is currently fragmented across various disciplines and there are often different perspectives and interpretations of the concept and the related aspects that need to be assessed. This fragmentation is also evident in the available studies that adopt different approaches in calculating the impacts, which makes efforts at comparing the results from different sources very challenging. Finally, this paper suggests that there is limited information on the indirect effects on the economy (e.g. impacts on the value chain or changes in consumption spending patterns) as well as the social impacts of the circular economy transition."

"This report sets out the elements for the design of a streamlined and future-proof policy on innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe. It is the result of a collective effort led by CEPS, which formed a Task Force on Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the EU, composed of authoritative scholars, industry experts, entrepreneurs, practitioners and representatives of EU and international institutions. The result of these deliberations is a set of policy recommendations aimed at improving the overall environment and approach for entrepreneurship and innovation in Europe and a new paradigmatic understanding of the role that innovation and entrepreneurship can and should play within the overall context of EU policy. These recommendations are based on a new, multi-dimensional approach to both innovation and entrepreneurship as social phenomena and to the policies that are meant to promote them."

"In this extensive report, we assess how a European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS) could be designed. To this end, we examine 18 EUBS variants, 4 equivalent and 14 genuine schemes, and their key features. Some of these features can also be found in national unemployment benefit schemes, while others are more related to the EUBS context. We analyse the design of a common EUBS in previous literature and combine these insights with results for the legal and operational options as well as constraints and the economic value added obtained as part of our study on the “Feasibility and Added Value of a European Unemployment Benefit Scheme”. All this information is integrated into a summary fiche for each of the 18 EUBS variants studied. In addition, the report deals with a range of policy issues including convergence, minimum requirements and accession criteria."

"This CEPS e-Book presents the final report of a comprehensive project on the Feasibility and Added Value of a European Unemployment Benefits Scheme, initiated by the European Parliament and commissioned by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. The aim of the study is to assess the legal and operational feasibility of introducing a European unemployment benefits scheme (EUBS), as well as the economic added value that such as scheme could bring. Some 18 different variants of an EUBS are analysed in terms of their design, legal and operational challenges and economic effects. The study presents the most comprehensive work on the subject to date. For each of these 18 variants, the impact on the individual member states, EMU and the EU has been examined. The 18 variants vary across a range of features, such as the replacement rate and caps used, the duration of unemployment benefits and the eligibility conditions that apply. If an EUBS were to be selected as one of the potential stabilisation mechanisms to explore further, this study provides evidence and insights on the barriers ahead and different ways to deal with them."