Documents public debt 309 results

"The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with the largest increases in public debt ratios since World War II. We decompose unexpected changes in debt ratios into the role of surprises in economic growth, interest costs, policy measures, and other factors. During both crises, lower-than-expected output contributed the most to higher-than-expected debt ratios. Fiscal policy measures recorded in the public deficit were similar in the two episodes. We also analyze the decade-long interlude (2010-19). Rather than declining as foreseen in a normative scenario, debt ratios remained stable on average, as interest rates, policy adjustment and, in some countries, economic growth turned out lower than expected."

"75 years of globalization have produced a highly integrated global economy, but now globalization is reversing due to geopolitical divisions and their impact on international policy cooperation. • This report explores the risks of fragmentation – where debt restructuring and payments systems lack cohesion and where other rules and standards diverge – in the international financial and monetary systems. • Rules and institutional governance need to be adjusted to reflect the present dynamics of the world economy so that policy cooperation can be underpinned by “strong, balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth”."

"The European Union has weathered a number of turbulent storms in recent years from the COVID-19 pandemic to the ongoing war in Ukraine. These crises have highlighted the limitations of the EU budget and the need for the flexibility to adequately respond to challenges in real time. They have also raised questions about the legal feasibility of more common debt following a dramatic increase in EU borrowing. What are the obstacles – and the opportunities – for the EU's public finances in the face of the numerous crises of our time? Is it possible to balance predictability for long-term investments and flexibility to react to unexpected turns of events? This Forum addresses these questions and builds on the discussions at the 2023 joint Intereconomics/CEPS conference."

"Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain entered a period of severe economic and financial stress in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. Their collective experience confirmed the primacy of total debt, private or public, in affecting the onset of, depth of, and recovery from economic crises. The year 2010 and the years following have demonstrated the ways in which policy responses to crisis-related downturns must be adapted when major international partners experience simultaneous growth slowdowns and markets exhibit increased risk aversion. This paper compares the recovery experience of these countries in light of recent policy debates and research on the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms. It highlights that (a) the quality of the policies adopted to stabilize economies in the short run affects growth recovery in the long run; and (b) macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary) are most effective in supporting growth when they take into account structural differences between countries and when policies complement each other. The country experiences indicate that a holistic view of factors affecting investment, exports, and employment is needed to understand the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms on output. In the absence of such a holistic view, policy may neglect to influence the binding constraints to growth."

"« TINA ». There Is No Alternative : il n'y a pas d'alternative.

La célèbre expression de Margaret Thatcher est tout sauf vraie. Des alternatives au capitalisme et à la pensée unique néolibérale existent. Elles sont construites par des femmes et des hommes qui, partout dans le monde, se dressent contre l'injustice, les inégalités, l'oppression. Beaucoup de ces alternatives sont simples, cohérentes et, avec un peu de volonté politique, pourraient être mises en œuvre dès aujourd'hui.

Prétendre que l'être humain est fondamentalement égoïste ou que le capitalisme est notre seul horizon revient à forger notre impuissance : en jetant le discrédit sur celles et ceux qui veulent changer le monde, taxés de rêveurs, d'utopistes, TINA nourrit le fatalisme, la passivité et la résignation. En effet, comment penser l'alternative et pourquoi agir si l'on part du principe que, de toute façon, « c'est foutu » et qu'on n'y pourra rien changer ?

C'est le point de départ et l'objectif de ce livre : proposer un outil accessible, pratique, concret et rigoureux pour rompre avec le fatalisme ambiant et montrer que, dans tous les domaines (finance, économie, éducation, culture, démocratie, agriculture, etc.), des alternatives crédibles à la mondialisation capitaliste sont à notre portée.

Cet ouvrage s'adresse aux millions de personnes indignées par les injustices et les absurdités de ce monde. À celles et ceux qui veulent construire un autre modèle, fondé sur la satisfaction des droits humains fondamentaux, le respect de l'environnement et la construction d'une véritable démocratie.

L'Histoire a montré qu'il est vain d'attendre passivement que nos dirigeants servent les intérêts des populations. Ce ne sont pas le bon sens ou l'intérêt général qui mènent le monde, mais les rapports de force. Face à la puissance organisée des transnationales et de la finance, il est temps que les peuples s'organisent, prennent en main leur destin et, par l'action collective, relèvent le défi du changement. Si ce livre réussit à éveiller l'envie d'apprendre, de débattre et de passer à l'action, il aura pleinement joué son rôle."

"This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consumption, and (iii) directly on the degree of inequality. The analysis, third, suggests that policies and policy debates have been misguided. The recent rediscovery of ‘secular stagnation' by Summers and others should be welcomed, but the suggested theoretical redirection is unclear and does not go far enough."

"This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances. To do so, it relies on a range of simulations using three different macro-structural models. According to the simulations, OECD governments could finance a ½ percentage point of GDP investment-led stimulus for three to four years on average in OECD countries without raising the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, provided projects are sound. After one year, the average output gains for the large advanced economies of such a stimulus amount to 0.4-0.6%. However, the gains are particularly uncertain for Japan. Reprioritising spending in later years would lead to average long-term output gains of between 0.5 to 2% in the large advanced economies. Those gains depend on the assumptions made on the rate of return. Hysteresis reinforces the case for an investment-led stimulus. Output gains will also be higher if the stimulus is combined with structural reforms and if countries act collectively."