Documents Natale, Fabrizio 3 results

"While the Draghi report primarily focuses on increasing labour productivity, it also makes a compelling case for mitigating the decline in the workforce by using the untapped potential of labour force participation and employment. Forward-looking analyses of the EU labour force require taking into account the ongoing process of women's empowerment and emancipation, changes in the population's educational profile, and varying assumptions about international migration. By factoring in these elements and in particular the projected changes in the educational attainment of the EU workforce, we emphasise the importance of investing in skills for the future of EU competitiveness. Our projections show that such investment will not be able to compensate for the EU's demographic decline, which remains of concern, but can mitigate the reduction in the number of workers. In a hypothetical extreme positive scenario, the projected adverse decline in labour force could be offset through the simultaneous exploitation of the entire potential of different forms of labour force activation. Estimates of the impact on GDP indicate that human capital growth, which is already embedded in the evolution of the EU population, is an area where the EU could have a competitive advantage."

"In designing an exit strategy from COVID-19, governments need to balance the risks posed by possible recrudescence of the epidemic when lifting containment measures, which is higher for vulnerable groups of populations, against the urgency to reopen established economic activities and reduce the social and psychological vulnerability of the population subjected to unprecedented social distancing measures.
In this note we try to quantify, on the one hand, vulnerability from a socio-economic and psychological perspective and the epidemiological risk associated with the patterns of social contacts, on the other. For both aspects we have adopted a demographic perspective, looking in particular at the distribution of vulnerability and social contact patterns by age. "

"The COVID-19 virus has spread within the last weeks to a large number of countries worldwide. Increasing evidence suggests that the epidemics does not impact everyone the same. In this note we explore the main demographic differentials in the spread and impact of COVID-19 paying special attention to the combined effect of age and gender, and to the differences at territorial level where population
density and size play a main role in the diffusion and effects of the disease in terms of morbidity and mortality. This knowledge complements and refines the epidemiological information about the spread of the virus. For this analysis, we rely mostly on descriptive exploration of data from The European Surveillance System (TESSy) database developed at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the number of cases and fatality rates. The analysis at territorial level, which we complement with data from USAfacts about counties in the United States, studies the changes in R0 – the infection reproduction number – across territories with different levels of urbanization. The findings confirm and define the differential impacts in terms of infections and fatalities. The information is important for stakeholders at EU, national and sub-national levels in charge of designing an exit strategy from COVID-19 and anticipating the rebound for certain segments of the population with differential medical needs, particularly those living in high-density locations."