Documents Deuster, Christoph 4 results

"While the Draghi report primarily focuses on increasing labour productivity, it also makes a compelling case for mitigating the decline in the workforce by using the untapped potential of labour force participation and employment. Forward-looking analyses of the EU labour force require taking into account the ongoing process of women's empowerment and emancipation, changes in the population's educational profile, and varying assumptions about international migration. By factoring in these elements and in particular the projected changes in the educational attainment of the EU workforce, we emphasise the importance of investing in skills for the future of EU competitiveness. Our projections show that such investment will not be able to compensate for the EU's demographic decline, which remains of concern, but can mitigate the reduction in the number of workers. In a hypothetical extreme positive scenario, the projected adverse decline in labour force could be offset through the simultaneous exploitation of the entire potential of different forms of labour force activation. Estimates of the impact on GDP indicate that human capital growth, which is already embedded in the evolution of the EU population, is an area where the EU could have a competitive advantage."

"This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to highlatitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20% of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future."

"International migration is a selective process that induces ambiguous effects on human capital and economic development in countries of origin. We establish the theoretical micro-foundations of the relationship between selective emigration and human capital accumulation in a multi-country context. We then embed this migration-education nexus into a development accounting framework to quantify the effects of migration on development and inequality. We find that selective emigration stimulates human capital accumulation and the income of those remaining behind in a majority of countries, in particular in the least developed ones. The magnitude of the effect varies according to the level of development, the dyadic structure of migration costs, and the education policy. Emigration significantly reduces cross-country income inequality and the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty."

"This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for the effects of changing temperatures, sea levels, and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, we model the impact of climate change on productivity and utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing people's migration decisions across millions of
km spatial cells, our approach sheds light on the magnitude and dyadic, education-specific structure of human migration induced by global warming. We find that climate change strongly intensifies global inequality and poverty, reinforces urbanization, and boosts migration from low- to high-latitude areas. Median projections suggest that climate change will induce a voluntary and a forced permanent relocation of 62 million working-age individuals over the course of the 21st century. Overall, under current international migration laws and policies, only a small fraction of people suffering from the negative effects of climate change manages to move beyond their homelands. We conclude that it is unlikely that climate shocks will induce massive international flows of migrants, except under combined extremely pessimistic climate scenarios and highly permissive migration policies. In contrast, poverty resulting from climate change is a real threat to all of us."