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Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe

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Cafiso, Gianluca ; Cellini, Roberto

Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, Paris

CEPII - Paris

2013

27 p.

fiscal policy ; public debt ; structural adjustment

EU countries

Working Paper

35

Public finance and taxation

http://www.cepii.fr/

English

Bibliogr.

"The objective of this paper is to gain insights into the relationship between deficit-reducing policies and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We consider past events of fiscal consolidation in a selected group of EU countries and check what is the associated change of the debt/GDP ratio both from a short and medium-term perspective. As for the medium-term perspective, we do also differentiate between tax-based and savings-based fiscal consolidations. Our results point towards a positive short-term effect, while the medium-term effect turns out to be negative. Savingsbased fiscal consolidations result to be less negative on the debt/GDP ratio's evolution than tax-based ones."

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