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Job-to-job transitions, job finding and the ins of unemployment

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Article

Simmons, Michael

Labour Economics

2023

80

102304

1-14

unemployment ; business cycle ; layoff

United Kingdom ; USA

Unemployment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102304

English

Bibliogr.

"Increases in the ins of unemployment during recessions are the result of two major forces: increased separations, or a fall in job finding of potential job-to-job transitions. This paper quantifies the contribution of these two channels using the flows approach to the labour market in the UK and US over a period of two decades including the Great Recession. First, the paper documents large variation in outcomes by reason for separation. Second, the paper shows that abstracting from this variation can significantly bias the importance of separations and job finding in driving changes in the ins of unemployment and the unemployment rate. Finally, the paper shows that fluctuations in layoffs and job finding conditional on separation are both important drivers of fluctuations in the ins of unemployment."

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