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Exiting from lockdowns: early evidence from reopenings in Europe

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Franks, Jeffrey R. ; Gruss, Bertrand ; Mulas-Granados, Carlos ; Patnam, Manasa ; Weber, Sebastian

IMF

IMF - Washington, DC

2020

epidemic disease ; government policy ; containment ; health policy ; contagion ; economic impact

Europe

IMF Working Paper

WP/20/218

Social protection - Health policy

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/10/21/Exiting-from-Lockdowns-Early-Evidence-from-Reopenings-in-Europe-49826

English

Bibliogr.

"European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors."

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