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Coherence of output gaps in the Euro area: The impact of the Covid-19 shock

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de Haan, Jakob ; Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. ; Zijm, Renske

CESifo, Munich

CESifo - Munich

2022

32 p.

epidemic disease ; business cycle ; macroeconomics ; economic impact

EU countries

CESifo working paper

9654

Business economics

https://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2022/working-paper/coherence-output-gaps-euro-area-impact-covid-19-shock

English

Bibliogr.

"Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries."

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