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Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?

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Afonso, António ; Grüner, Hans Peter ; Kolerus, Christina

European Central Bank

ECB - Frankfurt am Main

2010

40 p.

economic recession ; fiscal policy ; statistics

EU countries ; OECD countries

Working Paper Series

1217

Public finance and taxation

http://www.ecb.int

English

Bibliogr.

"In this paper we assess to what extent in the existence of a financial crisis, government spending can contribute to mitigate economic downturns in the short run and whether such impact differs in crisis and non crisis times. We use panel analysis for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1981-2007. The fiscal multiplier for the full sample for instrumented regular and crisis spending is about 0.6-0.8 considering the sample average government spending share of GDP of about one third. Altogether, we cannot reject the hypothesis that crisis spending and regular spending have the same impact using a variation of controls, sub-samples and specifications."

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