Documents Sondermann, David 4 results

"Economic resilience is essential to withstand adverse shocks and reduce the economic costs associated with them, argues the author of this CEPS Working Document. He proposes different measures of resilience and gauges how countries differ in their shock absorption capacity, while controlling for the quality of their economic structures.

The paper finds robust evidence that sound labour and product markets, framework conditions and political institutions increase resilience to adverse shocks and reduce the incidence of crisis more generally. In the presence of a common shock, a country with weaker economic structures can, on average, suffer up to twice the output loss in a given year compared to a country with sound institutional parameters. Similarly, the likelihood of a severe economic crisis is reduced if a country exhibits flexible and adaptable institutions. The proposed measures can be used to establish a governance process for more resilient economic structures, as suggested for the euro area in the so-called Five Presidents' Report."

"The objective of this paper is to investigate which factors macroeconomic, policy?related or institutional ? foster the implementation of structural reforms. To this objective, we look at episodes of structural reforms over three decades across 40 OECD and EU countries and link them to such factors. Our results suggest that structural reforms implementation is more likely during deep recessions and when unemployment rates are high. Moreover, the further distant from best practices, the more likely a country implements reforms. External pressures, such as being subject to a financial assistance programme, or being part of the EU Single Market facilitated pro?competitive reforms. If at all, low interest rates tend to promote rather than discourage structural reforms, while there seems no clear link between fiscal policy and reforms. Moreover, reforms in product markets tend to increase the likelihood of labour market reforms following suit. Many robustness checks have been carried out which confirm our main results."

"This report discusses the role of the European Union's full employment objective in the conduct of the ECB's monetary policy. It first reviews a range of indicators of full employment, highlights the heterogeneity of labour market outcomes within different groups in the population and across countries, and documents the flatness of the Phillips curve in the euro area. In this context, it is stressed that labour market structures and trend labour market outcomes are primarily determined by national economic policies. The report then recalls that, in many circumstances, inflation and employment move together and pursuing price stability is conducive to supporting employment. However, in response to economic shocks that give rise to a temporary trade-off between employment and inflation stabilisation, the ECB's medium-term orientation in pursuing price stability is shown to provide flexibility to contribute to the achievement of the EU's full employment objective. Regarding the conduct of monetary policy in a low interest rate environment, model-based simulations suggest that history-dependent policy approaches − which have been proposed to overcome lasting shortfalls of inflation due to the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates by a more persistent policy response to disinflationary shocks − can help to bring employment closer to full employment, even though their effectiveness depends on the strength of the postulated expectations channels. Finally, the importance of employment income and wealth inequality in the transmission of monetary policy strengthens the case for more persistent or forceful easing policies (in pursuit of price stability) when interest rates are constrained by their lower bound."

"Labour shortages have become prevalent across advanced economies. Yet, little is known about which firms are more likely to face them and the impact they have on the labour market. We create a firm-level data set spanning 28 EU countries, 283 regions and 18 sectors, contributing to close this gap. We find that structural factors play the dominant role. Firms in regions with limited labour supply as well as innovative and fast-growing firms are particularly prone to face labour shortages. Moreover, shortages tend to aggravate at business cycle peaks. In a second stage, we empirically determine the impact of labour shortages on wages and hiring. Firms with higher shortages pay a wage growth premium to keep and attract workers, increasingly so if they face excess demand. At the same time, those are the firms that hire less than the average."