Documents Clemens, Marius 3 results

"As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe in early 2020, the European Central Bank as well as national governments in the euro area enacted or announced numerous economic policy measures to counteract the severe economic consequences of the resulting lockdowns. In this paper, the immediate effect of the announcements on government bond and stock markets are estimated in a panel study. The results show that the ECB's monetary policy measures barely had a stabilizing effect on the financial markets in the short term. With the exception of the announcement of Germany's Economic Stabilization Fund, the fiscal rescue packages of other national governments and the EU did not lower government bond yields. In contrast, suspending fiscal rules and relaxing banking regulations had a calming effect on the markets, especially the government bond markets. In conjunction with fiscal policy measures, EU-wide measures in particular, they were able to stabilize the stock markets. Overall, the results show that policy action on the part of individual governments is not sufficiently effective on its own. To be effective, measures must be taken by Member States together. A joint crisis mechanism, such as the European Recovery Plan announced by the EU, could be quite efficient."

"A two-sector incomplete markets model with heterogeneous agents can be used to study the distributional effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. While negative aggregate welfare effects of the lockdown are unavoidable, the size of aggregate welfare effects as well as the distribution of the welfare effects across agents turn out to depend on the specific economic environment of the affected economy as well as the response of the government to the shock. We use the model to simulate the lockdown effects based on a calibration to German data. First, we find that without state aid and limited access to international financial markets especially poor household suffer large welfare losses, while wealthy house- hold could even benefit from the lockdown. Second, a state aid program reduces large parts of the welfare losses of workers across all income groups in the affected sectors by forcing loss sharing with agents working in the non-affected sector. However, wealthy households no matter in which sector still benefit more than the average household. Third, access to international financial markets is key to shift relative welfare gains from superrich to poorer households in both sectors. Once the country is able to borrow internationally, the benefit for superrich diminishes. Our results implicate that countries with rather limited access to financial markets and less stable government budget positions will suffer higher welfare losses and increases in inequality."