Documents Lamperti, Francesco 4 results

"In this paper we discuss some of the monetary policy issues that have involved major central banks worldwide since the 2008 financial crisis, and which remain open. We provide an ex-cursus of the unconventional monetary policies adopted by central banks in the last decade, focusing on the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, and we discuss the rationale and efficacy of some unconventional monetary instruments, of inflation targeting and of central bank independence. We also provide a perspective on possible future developments of monetary policy. We argue that while unconventional monetary policy was useful, there is still ample space for improvement: in the recessions to come, unconventional monetary policy will need to be better coordinated with fiscal, micro- and macro-prudential policies to provide more inclusive results that might positively affect the real economy beyond the financial system."

"Climate change is one of the most daunting challenges human kind has ever faced. In the paper, we provide a survey of the micro and macro economics of climate change from a complexity science perspective and we discuss the challenges ahead for this line of research. We identify four areas of the literature where complex system models have already produced valuable insights: (i) coalition formation and climate negotiations, (ii) macroeconomic impacts of climate-related events, (iii) energy markets and (iv) diffusion of climatefriendly technologies. On each of these issues, accounting for heterogeneity, interactions and disequilibrium dynamics provides a complementary and novel perspective to the one of standard equilibrium models. Furthermore, it highlights the potential economic benefits of mitigation and adaptation policies and the risk of under-estimating systemic climate change-related risks."

"In this work, we employ an agent-based integrated assessment model to study the likelihood of transition to green, sustainable growth in presence of climate damages. The model comprises heterogeneous fossil-fuel and renewable plants, capital- and consumption-good firms and a climate box linking greenhouse gasses emission to temperature dynamics and microeconomic climate shocks affecting labour productivity and energy demand of firms. Simulation results show that the economy possesses two statistical equilibria: a carbon-intensive lock-in and a sustainable growth path characterized by better macroeconomic performances. Once climate damages are accounted for, the likelihood of a green transition depends on the damage function employed. In particular, aggregate and quadratic damage functions overlook the impact of climate change on the transition to sustainability; to the contrary, more realistic micro-level damages are found to deeply influence the chances of a transition. Finally, we run a series of policy experiments on carbon (fossil fuel) taxes and green subsidies. We find that the effectiveness of such market-based instruments depends on the different channels climate change affects the economy through, and complementary policies might be required to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins."

"What do firms expect future carbon prices to be, and how do they formulate their expectations? One basis for decision-making is likely to be the climate pledges of policymakers. However, policy announcements trigger the desired behavioural changes only if individuals believe these will be followed by actual policy actions.

The authors of this paper model and analyse the dynamic interaction between heterogeneous (diverse) expectations, investment decisions and climate mitigation policymaking, examining how firms invest in low versus high carbon capital depending on their beliefs about future carbon prices. They show that weak policy commitment, especially when combined with ambitious emission mitigation announcements, can trap the economy into a vicious circle of credibility loss, carbon-intensive investments and increasing risk perceptions, ultimately leading to a failure of the low-carbon transition. They identify the conditions that would lead to a successful transition and provide a numerical application for the EU economy. The results offer valuable insights for designing and communicating effective climate policies."