Documents De Philippis, Marta 3 results

"Strong labor force participation cyclicality during the Covid-19 pandemic has put further into question the capacity of standard Phillips Curve (PC) models to fully capture labor market cyclical conditions. In this paper, we jointly estimate natural unemployment and participation rates (i.e. compatible with constant inflation) through an augmented PC informed by structural labor market flows across employment, unemployment and inactivity. Focusing on Italy we find that, during the pandemic: (i) natural unemployment has remained unchanged, while natural participation has declined slightly, mostly due to a rise in retirement flows driven by a temporary reduction in pension eligibility rules; (ii) virtually all slack was accounted for by the participation margin, which added significant downward pressures to inflation dynamics.

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"Aggregate wages display little cyclicality compared to what a standard model would predict. Wage rigidities are an obvious candidate but a recent strand of the literature has emphasized the need to take into account the growing importance of worker composition effects during downturns. With reference to the Italian case we document that also firm composition effects increasingly matter in explaining the aggregate wage dynamics, i.e. aggregate wage growth has been lifted up by the increase in the employment weight of high wage firms. To the extent that this reallocation occurs towards more productive firms, the composition effects may also reflect an efficiency enhancing mechanism. We use a newly available dataset based on social security records covering the universe of Italian employers be-tween 1990 and 2013 and employ a standard measure of allocative efficiency on wages paid across firms. We show that this measure has improved over time since prior to the recent downturn and that it is aligned, at the sectoral level, with measures of productivity growth and market openness to competition. We then focus on the recent downturn and find that large firms were able to adjust wages more than small firms, and that small firms instead adjusted employment to a larger extent. Finally, we document that the continued improvement in the measure of allocative efficiency over this period correlates positively with measures of economic activity (evolution of employment and value added) across sectors."

"The spread of the pandemic and the consequent adoption of lockdown measures to prevent infections had severe consequences for business activity and employment. By using data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper simulates the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the dynamics and distribution of equivalized labour income in the first two quarters of 2020. Moreover, it assesses the effectiveness in smoothing labour income losses of the social insurance benefits that were in place before the crisis and of the temporary measures adopted by the Italian Government to face it. We find that the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 shock impacted low-income households more heavily than higher income families, implying a substantial increase in labour income inequality. However, our results show that the social insurance benefits temporarily introduced by the Italian Government were able, at least in the short term, to compensate for these income losses and for the increased inequality significantly more than the pre-crisis measures."