Documents Giampietro, Mario 3 results

" 'The Jevons Paradox', which was first expressed in 1865 by William Stanley Jevons in relation to use of coal, states that an increase in efficiency in using a resource leads to increased use of that resource rather than to a reduction. This has subsequently been proved to apply not just to fossil fuels, but other resource use scenarios. For example, doubling the efficiency of food production per hectare over the last 50 years (due to the Green Revolution) did not solve the problem of hunger. The increase in efficiency increased production and worsened hunger because of the resulting increase in population. The implications of this in today's world are substantial. Many scientists and policymakers argue that future technological innovations will reduce consumption of resources; the Jevons Paradox explains why this may be a false hope. This is the first book to provide a historical overview of the Jevons Paradox, provide evidence for its existence and apply it to complex systems. Written and edited by world experts in the fields of economics, ecological economics, technology and the environment, it explains the myth of efficiency and explores its implications for resource usage (particularly oil). It is a must-read for policymakers, natural resource managers, academics and students concerned with the effects of efficiency on resource use."

"In sustainability analysis, human time is a crucial and overlooked societal limit. Some core countries overcome their time budgets and preserve their socio-economic structures by using energy and importing working time embodied in products and services. This paper analyses the roles of the United States, the European Union, and China in the international division of labor using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework. We calculated working time in production, consumption, and trade both in absolute and per capita terms, for the different economic subsectors in 2011. Energy Metabolic Rates (energy use per hour) and Economic Job Productivity (value-added per hour) complemented the analysis. Whereas the greatest share of the workforce in China was still in agriculture, the US and EU had it in the tertiary sectors by outsourcing large shares of agriculture, mining, and industry: they import about half of the labor time in their consumption. At the global level, the trade of embodied labor is a zero-sum game. This fact questions the long-term viability of the current pattern of development enjoyed by the EU and the US, as well as the possibility for emerging economies to complete a similar transition to a post-industrial economy."

"The belief that it is possible to have a perpetual “economic growth” based on fossil energy has been challenged since the 1970s. However, only in the last decade is this issue re-emerging once again because of the predicaments of climate change and peak oil. Many, finally start to perceive that an “economic degrowth” entailing a downscaling of the current size and pattern of socio-economic systems seem unavoidable. In this paper we analyze the implications, the feasibility and the desirability of possible trajectories of downscaling from an energetic perspective. The quantitative analysis is based on the methodological approach of societal metabolism, and it provides a dynamic accounting of the profile of energy flows required and consumed by societies in relation the expression of a given set of societal functions. This analysis makes it possible to check two types of constraints: external constraints (supply and sink side limits for the whole) and internal constraints (the feasibility of energy budget of the various parts of the society expressing the required functions). The analysis of the metabolic pattern of a sample of developed countries is used to discuss possible implications of: (i) demographic changes; (ii) the declining supply of net energy sources, and (iii) the effects of the Jevons' Paradox. Within such an analysis, a few assumptions and recipes of the degrowth movement seem problematic: (i) population is and will remain as a relevant variable to be considered; (ii) the proposed reduction in working hours seem to be impractical unless a major catastrophe will reset current civilization to pre-industrial standards; and (iii) voluntary reduction of personal energy consumption, even if a welcome adjustment, alone will not solve the existing problems. In the final part of the paper, future energetic road maps are questioned within the realm of post-normal science. Can we “plan” degrowth? If we are serious about the need of doing “something completely different”, societies will have to learn how to deliberate under uncertainty within the realms of flexible management and stop planning for either growth or degrowth. Moreover, before suggesting policies, it would be wise first to try to understand the option space."