Documents van Tongeren, Frank 5 results

"Global trade imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. They have remained at a lower level but are still of concern to policy makers because of the risks they pose to individual economies, as well as globally. However, the ultimate causes of these imbalances are not fully clear. Current account positions reflect the gap between national saving and investment, which are in turn affected by policy distortions, including in trade policy. Simulations of the OECD's METRO model show liberalisation of existing trade distortions would modestly narrow aggregate trade imbalances in the medium term for some countries. Reducing tariffs, non-tariff measures and the combined market access and productivity-enhancing effects of pro-competitive measures in services all have some rebalancing potential. Liberalisation would also offer economically significant income gains for all countries. By contrast, narrowing trade imbalances using trade restrictions would come at disproportionately high economic costs for all countries."

"This paper provides estimates of the potential effects on exports, imports, production, factor demand and GDP in Ireland of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), focusing on trade and FDI channels. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement between the negotiating parties, the choice has been made to assume a worst-case outcome where trade relations between the United Kingdom and EU are governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules. In doing so, it provides something close to an upper bound estimate of the negative economic impact taking into account the potential for some firms to relocate to Ireland. Any final trade agreement that would result in closer relationships between the United Kingdom and the EU could reduce this negative impact. The simulations use two large-scale models: a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO). These models are used to quantify, both at the macroeconomic and the sectoral level, two key channels through which Ireland would be affected: trade and foreign direct investment. The simulation results highlight that the negative effect on trade could result in Ireland's GDP falling by 1½ per cent in the medium-term and around 2½ per cent in the long-term. The impacts are highly heterogeneous across sectors. Agriculture, food, and some smaller manufacturing sectors experience the largest declines in total gross exports at over 15%. By contrast, financial services exports increase slightly. The modelling suggests that any positive offsetting impact to the trade shock from increased inward FDI to Ireland is likely to be modest."

"The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise' GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD's computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness."

"This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1‑3%."