Documents Chamberlin, Graeme 4 results

"Flash estimates are early or advance estimates of statistics, usually based exclusively or partly on forecasts. They are demanded by policy-makers and analysts who have to make decisions in real time and before enough information is collected to publish the data conventionally. As such there is a tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy. This article outlines the approach taken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to produce flash estimates of European labour costs, as part of a wider Eurostatled project on flash estimates in Europe. A general-to-specific methodology is used to select the best combination of indicators to use in a forecast model. Flash estimates are presented for the groups of Euro-Zone 15 and European Union 27 countries. "

"During the last year the global economy has experienced its most severe recession since the Great Depression.This article compares the UK experience with that of OECD member countries - a group of the major industrialised economies. While important economies such as Japan and Germany saw a larger fall in output, the depth of the UK recession was larger than the OECD average.Recent data shows the global economy beginning to emerge from recession, but the projections are for a weak and fragile recovery as households, businesses and governments continue to pay off debts and rebuild their balance sheets.In fact, the major economies could be susceptible to a further downturn resulting in a double-dip recession.The second part of this article looks at the factors underlying recent growth forecasts made by the OECD and the IMF. "

"As a measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP) is a useful indicator of output and suitable for using in estimates of productivity. However, as a measure of welfare, it has several limitations. This article follows Sefton and Weale (1996, 2005) in producing an estimate of real income ? a corrected or adjusted version of GDP ? that is linked to current and future consumption possibilities. This measure of real income differs from real (money) GDP by taking account of capital consumption, net income and transfers from overseas, and uses a consumption deflator rather than a general GDP deflator so that output is valued in terms of consumption units."

"China's economic growth over the last two decades has been truly remarkable. Averaging near double?digit percentage growth each year, it is now the second largest economy in the world based on gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected, one day, to overtake the USA and become the largest. China's growth has been predominantly export driven and centred in manufacturing, especially since joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. This article looks at how the rise of China has impacted on the UK's international trade and investment and also how the continuing development of China may affect these in the future."