Documents Navicke, Jekaterina 3 results

"The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due in part to the complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), estimates of the number of people at risk of poverty are published with a 2 to 3 year delay. This paper presents a method of estimating (‘nowcasting') the current distribution of income between households, including the at-risk-of-poverty rate, using a tax-benefit microsimulation model (EUROMOD) based on the EU-SILC, combined with up-to-date macro-level statistics. The method is applied to 13 EU Member States experiencing differing economic conditions over the period, including those which have been affected comparatively little by the crisis as well as those which have suffered a major reduction in economic activity and employment."

"This paper looks into the role the tax-benefit system plays in mitigating the effects of widespread socio-economic risks in the context of individualization, welfare state transformation and recent austerity. We analyse the drivers behind the changing role of the risk-mitigating social policies looking through the theoretical lenses of the risk society. The performance of the tax-benefit system in providing a safety net against income loss in cases of unemployment and childbirth is evaluated using the stress-testing approach suggested by Atkinson (2009). The analysis suggests that the role of the welfare state shifts towards promotion of individual responsibility for risk management. The welfare state policies can produce substantially different levels of vulnerability to poverty among population groups facing different risks. In the context of the recent economic crisis in Lithuania, the lack of the counter-cyclical protection provided by the welfare state is apparent, while the traditional mutual support among the household members still plays a major role in the risk management process."

"The at-risk-of-poverty rate is one of the three indicators used for monitoring progress towards the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion reduction target. Timeliness of this indicator is critical for monitoring the effectiveness of policies. However, due to complicated nature of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) poverty risk estimates are published with a 2 to 3 year delay. This paper presents a method that can be used to estimate (“nowcast”) the current at-risk-of-poverty rate for the European Union (EU) countries based on EU-SILC microdata from a previous period. The EU tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD is used for this purpose in combination with up to date macro-level statistics. We validate the method by using EU-SILC data for 2007 incomes to estimate at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2008-2012, and where possible compare our predictions with actual EU-SILC and other external statistics. The method is tested on eight EU countries which are among those experiencing the most volatile economic conditions within the period: Estonia, Greece, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Romania."