Documents Blanchflower, David G. 35 results

"This paper examines changes in unionization that have occurred over the last decade or so using individual level micro data on twenty seven of the thirty OECD countries, with particular emphasis on Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. Micro-data is also used to model union membership in a further eleven non-OECD countries. Union density is found to be negatively correlated with level of education in the private sector and positively correlated in the public sector. The probability of being a union member is found to follow an inverted U-shaped pattern in age, maximizing in Canada, the USA and the UK in the mid to late 40s. This inverted U-shaped pattern is repeated in a further thirty countries (Australia; Austria; Bangladesh; Belgium; Bulgaria; Chile; Czech Republic; Denmark; Germany; Estonia; Finland; France; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Israel; Japan; Luxembourg; Mexico; Netherlands; New Zealand; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Russia; Slovak Republic; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden and Switzerland). I consider the question of why this inverted U-shape in age exists across countries with diverse industrial relations systems including early retirement and cohort effects."

"This paper examines the amount of slack in the UK labor market. It examines the downward adjustments made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to both unemployment and underemployment, which in our view are invalid. Without any evidence the MPC in its assessment of the output gap reduces the level of unemployment because of its claim that long-term unemployment has no effect on wages. We produce contrary evidence. The MPC further reduces the level of underemployment in the United Kingdom by half. We present arguments as to why we also think this inappropriate. We set out arguments on why we believe the level of slack is greater than the MPC calibrates. Consistent with that is the fact that real wages in the United Kingdom continue to fall."

"UK population growth over the last thirty-five years has been remarkably low in comparison with other countries; the population grew by just 7% between 1971 and 2004, less than all the other EU15 countries except Germany. The UK population has grown at a faster pace since the turn of the millennium driven primarily by changes in net migration, and in particular from an influx of migrants from eight East European (A8) countries. There appears to be consistent evidence from the Worker Registration Scheme and National Insurance Number applications that approximately 500,000 migrants from the A8 countries had come to work in the UK between May 2004 and late 2006. But other sources suggest approximately half of these workers have likely returned to their country of origin. We argue that, at present, it appears that A8 immigration has tended to increase supply by more than it has increased demand in the UK (in the short run). This migration flow, we argue, has acted to reduce inflationary pressures and to lower the natural rate of unemployment. "

"This paper draws attention to an increase in the size of the union membership wage premium in the UK public sector relative to the private sector. We find the public sector membership wage premium is approximately double that in the private sector controlling for a full range of individual, job and workplace characteristics. Using data from the Labour Force Surveys of 1993-2006 the gap between the membership premium in the public and private sectors closes with the addition of three digit occupational controls, although significant wage premia remain in both sectors. However, using data from the Workplace Employment Relations Survey of 2004, the public sector union membership wage premium remains roughly twice the size of the private sector membership premium having accounted for workplace fixed effects, workers' occupations, their job characteristics, qualifications and worker demographics. Furthermore, the membership wage premium among workers covered by collective bargaining is only apparent in the public sector."

"This article reviews the effects of the Great Recession on youth labour markets. We argue that young people aged 16–24 have suffered disproportionately during the recession. Using the USA and UK as case studies, we analyse youth unemployment using micro-data. We find that there is convincing evidence that the effects of unemployment when young impose costs on individuals and society well into the future. Although the effects of current policies on youth unemployment are uncertain, there is still a strong case for policy intervention to address the difficulties that the young are having in accessing employment."

"This paper examines changes in unionization that have occurred over the last decade or so using individual level micro data on many countries, with particular emphasis on the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. I document an empirical regularity not hitherto identified, namely the probability of being unionized follows an inverted U-shaped pattern in age, maximizing in the mid- to late 40s in 34 of the 38 countries I study. I consider the question of why union membership seems to follow a similar inverted U-shape pattern in age across countries with such diverse industrial relations systems. I find evidence that this arises in part because of cohort effects, but even when cohort effects are removed a U-shape remains."

"The Workplace Industrial Relations Surveys marked a radical departure in the study of industrial relations (IR) by ‘mapping' IR in Britain with nationally representative large-scale surveys of workplace managers, thus permitting investigation of the incidence of practices and changes over time. This article reflects on some of what we have learned in the five surveys over the quarter century since 1980, focusing selectively on the demise of collective IR, pay determination, the IR climate, and union effects on wages and employment growth."

"We consider the effects of the financial crisis and subsequent recession on world labour markets. It begins by cataloguing the adverse effects on output of the sudden collapse in demand brought about by the financial crisis in what has come to be called the Great Recession. Next we look at the labour market and how employment and unemployment have been impacted and document the very different responses by country. We then move on to look at attitudinal indicators of the impact of the rising levels of joblessness we observe across most OECD countries. We examine data on well-being and on attitudes to employment. We also examine a number of questions about the impact of globalization that respondents across many European countries were asked in the Spring of 2010. Finally, we examine the policy responses of governments, and consider what lessons might be learned from the marked differences in labour market outcomes following the recession. "