Documents Schneider, Hilmar 9 results

"The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run."

"Mit der Hartz-Reform wurden auch im Bereich der beruflichen Weiterbildung grundlegende Neuerungen eingeführt. Dazu gehören vor allem die Einführung von Bildungsgutscheinen als neuem Allokationsinstrument, das den potentiellen Teilnehmern Wahlfreiheit bei der Auswahl der Bildungsanbieter gewährt, sowie eine stärker an der Wiedereingliederungsprognose ausgerichtete Auswahl der Teilnehmer. Wir untersuchen für die Phasen vor und nach der Reform die Wirkung der Teilnahme an berufsbezogener und -übergreifender Weiterbildung, dem quantitativ bedeutsamsten FbW-Programmtyp. Dabei greifen wir auf Verwaltungsdaten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit zurück und schätzen ausgehend von einem konditionalen Propensity-Score-Matching die durchschnittlichen Teilnahmeeffekte mittels nicht-parametrischer Vergleiche der Zustandwahrscheinlichkeiten sowie mittels semi-parametrischer Übergangsratenmodelle. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Teilnahme bereits vor der Reform zu einem Anstieg der Beschäftigungswahrscheinlichkeit geführt hat. Die Ergebnisse für die relativ kurze Beobachtungsperiode nach der Reform deuten darauf hin, dass die Effektivität der Maßnahme zugenommen hat, wobei der Reformeffekt in erster Linie auf eine Verkürzung des Lock-In Effekt zurückzuführen ist.

The so-called Hartz reform has introduced fundamental changes for publicly sponsored training in Germany. This concerns primarily the emission of training vouchers as an exclusive allocation device, allowing potential participants free choice among training providers within a given training target range. In addition, delivery of training vouchers is conditioned on sufficient re-employment prospects of a job-seeker. We comparatively examine the impact of participation for the quantitatively most important type of training programs before and after the reform by using administrative data of the Federal Employment Agency. Based on conditional propensity score matching, we investigate average treatment effects by means of non-parametrically estimated state probabilities and semi-parametrically estimated transition rates. Our results show that participation in training programs had a positive impact on employment prospects already before the reform. Results for the relative short observation period since the reform are pointing to a further increase of effectiveness. The driving force behind this seems to come from reducing the duration of training programs, which has decreased the lock-in effect without affecting the program effect. "

"In den letzten 20 Jahren ist die Einkommensungleichheit in Deutschland kontinuierlich gestiegen. Gemeinhin wird dies als Ausdruck für einen Anstieg der Lohnungleichheit gedeutet, was wiederum zu Rückschlüssen auf veränderte Verhandlungsmacht von Arbeitnehmern dient. Weitgehend vernachlässigt wird dagegen die Rolle von Veränderungen der Haushaltsstruktur. Gesellschaftliche Trends wie Geburtenrückgang und steigendes Scheidungsrisiko wirken sich auf das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Haushalten aus und damit auf die Einkommensverteilung, selbst wenn sich an den gezahlten Löhnen nichts ändert. Das Ziel des Beitrags besteht in einer Quantifizierung des Anteils veränderter Haushaltsstrukturen an der Zunahme der Ungleichheit. Es zeigt sich, dass der Anstieg der Ungleichheit in der Vergangenheit tatsächlich deutlich stärker von demografischen Trends getrieben wurde als von Veränderungen der Löhne. Darüber hinaus lässt sich feststellen, dass ein bedeutsamer Teil dieses Anstiegs durch sozialstaatliche Eingriffe kompensiert wird."

"Short-time work compensation aims at reducing lay-offs by allowing employers to temporarily reduce hours worked while compensating workers for the induced loss of income. These programs are now widespread in the OECD countries, notably following the 2008-2009 crisis. This paper discusses the efficiency of this type of policy and investigates its impact on unemployment and employment. There is some evidence that short-time compensation programs stabilize permanent employment and reduce unemployment during downturns. All in all, it seems that short-time work programs used in the recent downturn had significant beneficial effects. This suggests that countries which do not have short-time compensation programs could benefit from their introduction. But short-time compensation programs can also induce inefficient reductions in working hours and reduce the prospects of outsiders if used too intensively. Thus, the design of short-time compensation programs should include an experience-rating component. "

"This strategy paper by the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) shows ways in which Germany once more can attain full employment in the coming decade. Much of what the previous government's "Agenda 2010" has put into motion has clearly steered labor market development in the right direction. The reforms are one of the main reasons why Germany has been more resistant to the recent financial and economic crisis than other countries. While these achievements should not be called into question, further action is necessary. The IZA concept includes the following elements: (1) Education reform: Early childhood education must be improved. Social background should no longer determine future career prospects. More independence and competition between schools and universities would improve the quality of education. Selection of students into different secondary school tracks should occur at a higher age. The dual system of apprenticeship training could be shortened. College tuition fees could be replaced by a graduate tax. (2) Welfare state reform: A consistent implementation of the principle of reciprocity would create additional employment incentives and make working for a living worthwhile again even for the low-skilled. Workfare is socially just and promotes independence rather than producing dependency. Child benefits should be granted primarily as vouchers. (3) Job placement reform: The problem groups of the labor market need one-stop support tailored to their individual needs as soon as they become unemployed. IZA proposes the creation of job centers that act independently from local and federal authorities in order to avoid the organizational maze of unclear responsibilities. (4) Immigration policy reform: Germany needs high-skilled immigrants to cope with demographic change and skilled labor shortages. A selection system for permanent immigrants and a market-based solution for temporary immigrants would substantially increase the economic benefits of immigration and create additional momentum for the realization of full employment."

"The idea of a universal basic income (UBI) is nothing new: the concept of a guaranteed endowment paid by the government to each of its citizens dates back centuries. The UBI has gained momentum in recent years as the relative economic stability of the second half of the 20th century gave way to a more turbulent start to the new millennium. The limits of the free market and globalisation in providing a decent standard of living for every citizen were laid bare for all to see, and inequality widened in even the richest global economies. Added to this was the increasing complexity of social security systems in modern welfare states. Policymakers and civil servants had the unenviable task of deciding who was deserving of assistance, as well as policing those in the system to make sure advantage was not being taken. Proponents argue that a UBI, by simply trusting everyone with a basic income each month, could solve both of these issues. Moreover, it could also be the solution to the purportedly imminent destruction of traditional jobs due to the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence. While the idea of a UBI is intriguing, real-world implementation is anything but basic. No serious answers have been found to the question of how to finance such a system, and until a workable solution is found, a UBI is simply not feasible. Other issues that economists continue to research include the negative effects of a UBI on a person's willingness to work and the proper size of a UBI in order to fulfil its intended purpose. The following five articles in this Forum deal with these issues in order to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of what will surely be a major topic of debate over the next decade and beyond."

"This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should increase income inequality, while the effect of up-skilling is more ambiguous. Tax-benefit systems may stabilize these expected changes though this is largely an empirical question given their typically complex nature. We use a decomposition technique to isolate the effect of projected demographic change on income inequality and poverty from the reaction of the labor market to this demographic change through wage adjustments. Our results show that demographic change is likely to lead to increasing inequality while related wage adjustments work mainly in the opposite direction. Changes to projected relative poverty are minimal for most countries. With a few exceptions, EU tax-benefit systems are able to absorb most of projected increase in market income inequality."