Documents Garbellini, Nadia 2 results

"This study examines 28 selected cases of transition from a fixed to a more flexible exchange rate combined with devaluation over the period 1980–2013. The crises examined generally prove to be significantly correlated to a reduction in real wages and the wage share. However, both groups are also characterised by an important degree of variability with respect to sample averages, which suggests that the dynamics of real wages and wage shares were also influenced by the specific institutional and political environments in which such crises and devaluations took place. Finally, there appear to be no adequate empirical grounds for the claim that a decrease in real wages resulting from a currency regime crisis will result in improved levels of production and employment. All evaluations of the links between the currency regime and the dynamics of wages and distribution should in any case be carried out not in abstract terms but by comparing the possible implications of abandoning the regime with those of maintaining it. The opportunity of a comparative analysis also applies to the study of current episodes, such as the eurozone crisis."

"The economic and health crisis triggered by the Covid 19 pandemic leaves the European Union facing the steepest decline in production and employment since the Second World War, on top of economic fundamentals that are already fragile as a result of the disastrous effects of the double fall associated with the great financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. This paper shows that, in the absence of an industrial policy aimed at changing the structure of the EU's productive system, the transformation of global demand currently taking place will mostly benefit the Asian economy with China increasingly assuming industrial supremacy to the detriment of the US. The EU, in its turn, is going to accumulate growing gaps in terms of productive capacity within different supply chains – with the partial exception of Germany. In order to achieve a transition that is not only environmental but also social, a European industrial policy is needed for the creation and public management of at least four industrial sectors, broadly defined: semiconductors – whose production is triggered by final demand for an extremely broad range of commodities, in particular TLC devices and personal computers; hydrogen electrolysers, solar panels and wind turbines; TLC equipment such as personal computers, smartphones, tablets – and in general connectivity devices; and public transport equipment."