Documents Landesmann, Michael A. 10 results

"This paper examines current account developments in different country groups amongst the lower- and medium-income European economies (LMIEs) both prior to the crisis and following it. The Baltic countries, the Western Balkan as well as the Southern EU countries (Greece, Portugal and Spain) showed rather dramatic deteriorations in their current accounts prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008/2009, while in the Central and Eastern European countries current account deficits never exploded. What drove current account developments before the crisis and have external imbalances been sustainably corrected? We investigate whether and to which extent adjustments took place in terms of trade performance, real effective exchange rates and components of unit labour costs. Finally, we look at developments of the tradable and non-tradable sectors of the economy and find that ‘structural' current account problems are grounded in persistent weaknesses of the tradable sector. As such, policy implications would entail that countries which suffer from longer-term ‘structural' external imbalances have to strongly focus their policy attention on a recovery of the tradable sector."

"One lesson of the Great Recession has been that countries with higher shares of industry in their GDP seemed to be less affected by the crisis. Consequently, the call for an industrial renaissance has become stronger. Industrial policy has now become a top priority in countries where it was not explicitly considered in the past. A strong EU-wide industrial policy is expected to foster growth and job creation. However, cultivating industrial development is a complex challenge. This Forum addresses the steps that need to be taken to create a new European industrial policy. What are the structural challenges that need to be addressed? What are the instruments of the EU's industrial policy? And should the EU be engaged in picking winners, or is the market better at making such judgements?"

"The freedom of movement of persons is one of the core tenets of the European Union. Immigration however is often seen as a cause for concern amongst native workers, as rising labour supply may threaten jobs and create downward pressure on wages. National politicians are increasingly under pressure to guard against it - in times of recession particularly. Despite this, there is evidence that highly-skilled migrant labour has the potential to raise competitiveness significantly and in theory this may feed into productivity. In this paper, we explore first the composition of inward migration to the EU and within the EU, concentrating specifically on the role of the highly-skilled and the extent to which migrants are overqualified within their jobs. We then analyse whether migrant workers affect productivity at the sectoral level. We find underutilisation of skilled foreign labour and there is little evidence in general to suggest that migrants have raised productivity which may in part be attributable to over-qualification. However, we find robust evidence that migrants - particularly highly-skilled migrants - play a positive role in productivity developments in industries which are classified as 'skill intensive'. "

"In this Blueprint, Bruegel Resident Fellows Zsolt Darvas, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Andre Sapir and their co-authors Torbjörn Becker, Daniel Daianu, Vladimir Gligorov, Michael A Landesmann, Pavle Petrovic, Dariusz K. Rosati and Beatrice Weder di Mauro argue that in view of the depth of integration in Europe, the development model of the central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) region, despite its shortcomings, should be preserved. But it should be reformed, with major implications for policymaking both at national and EU levels. If so, what are the required changes? Bruegel and The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) cooperated to form this expert group of economists from various European countries to research these issues. "

This paper investigates with a joint approach the impact of immigration and different measures of ‘offshoring' on the labour demand and demand elasticities of native workers in four different occupational groups: managers/professionals, clerks, craft workers and manual workers. It shows that of all measures of globalisation considered immigration has the most consistent and strongest negative effect on the employment of native workers, particularly on managers/professionals, clerks and manual workers. The employment effects of offshoring differ by the measure used and are positive for craft workers but, in contrast to what is typically found in the literature, negative for the high-skilled group of managers/professionals. Furthermore, immigration and offshoring both impact on natives' labour demand elasticities but the effect differs by occupational group. Thus, while the immigration of craft workers reduces labour demand elasticities for native craft workers, the immigration of managers/professionals and clerks has the opposite effect on native workers in the same occupations. Furthermore, we test for cross effects of migration and outsourcing between the different occupational groups."

"This paper analyses labour market integration in Austria of non-European refugees originating from middle and low income countries for the period 2009-2018. We assess their probability of being employed in comparison to non-humanitarian migrants, European third country immigrants and natives. We draw on a register based panel dataset covering the complete labour market careers of all individuals residing in Austria. We control for macro level explanatory variables (e.g. the labour market situation at the time and the place of settlement) and individual characteristics. The analysis shows that initial refugee employment gaps are large in the first years when labour market access is difficult. After a period of seven years the unconditional gap between refugees and natives declines to 30 percentage points, similar to the one of non-humanitarian migrants, but the gap is still further decreasing. After controlling for a set of additional explanatory variables, the conditional gap amounts to only 10 percentage points at the same time. Moreover, our analysis provides insights into differences between employment gaps across population subgroups of immigrant groups and natives by gender, age and education level."

"This paper estimates conditional demand models and, using a joint approach for the period 2008-2017, examines the impact of immigration and different measures of offshoring on the labour demand and demand elasticities of native workers in four different types of occupational groups: managers/professionals, clerical workers, craft (skilled) workers and manual workers. The analysis is conducted using data for four EU economies: Austria, Belgium, France and Spain. Our results point to important and occupation-specific direct and indirect effects of immigration and offshoring. Both offshoring – particularly services offshoring – and immigration have negative direct employment effects on all occupations, but native clerks and manual workers are affected the most, and native managers/professionals the least. Generally, offshoring exerts a stronger direct negative employment effect than does immigration. Our results also identify an important (labour demand) elasticity-channel of immigration and offshoring and show that some groups of native workers can also actually gain from globalisation through an improvement in their wage-bargaining position. Overall, our results indicate a deterioration in the bargaining power of native manual workers arising from both immigration and offshoring; an improvement in the bargaining position of native craft workers in the case of both immigration and offshoring; and an improvement in the bargaining position of native clerical workers and managers/professionals in the case of offshoring only. Finally, our analysis of the cross-effects of immigration highlights the important role of migrant managers/professionals for the labour demand and demand elasticities (bargaining power) of native clerical workers, craft and manual workers."

Nicholas Kaldor and Kazimierz Łaski have been two very prominent exponents of Keynesian thinking. They both contributed to the debate on European economic integration, one (Nicholas Kaldor) in the early 1970s, when there were fierce debates about the United Kingdom's entry to the European Communities, and the other (Kazimierz Łaski) in the wake of the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2012, when the European Union and its Economic and Monetary Union were seriously challenged by potential disintegration. Both exponents provided deep and complementary inputs into an understanding of the centrifugal forces at work when a region with a rudimentary federal structure (but an extremely weak ‘central state') embarks on tight economic integration with an inadequate macroeconomic policy framework in place."

"This paper applies a recently developed ‘structural-political economy' (SPE) framework to study centrifugal and centripetal forces in two of the crises that impacted on the European integration process: the financial crisis of 2008/9 and its aftermath and the Covid-19 crisis. It emphasises that the cumulative nature of the impact of these two crises forces shifts in interest positions of important political actors (countries, sectors, social constituencies) to address issues of ‘systemic instability' which pushes innovations in the policy instruments that become available at the EU level. Bargaining processes that characterise the negotiations and outcomes of these crisis responses are complex, they reflect differences in size and urgencies to come to agreements, and they have themselves differentiating impacts on relevant political actors."