"Since the 2002 Barcelona summit, Germany has been seen as a regional leader in achieving European states' shared commitment to increase state-funded childcare. Yet Germany's childcare success has not been homogeneous across its Länder; rather, it has shown remarkable subnational variation, with considerable differences in spending, policy design and coverage. Using panel data analysis and historical narratives, this article provides a theory for variation in provision of state-financed childcare for children under three years of age. We argue that competing visions of childcare at the subnational level – driven by the demands of differing numbers of women in the workforce and religious beliefs, and channelled by local government partisanship – have served as powerful constraints on convergence. Left partisanship and increased participation of women in the labour force are associated with higher provision of childcare for those aged under three, while larger Catholic populations are correlated with less extensive state-funded childcare."

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