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Short-time work and precautionary savings

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Dengler, Thomas ; Gehrke, Britta

Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn

IZA - Bonn

2021

41 p.

epidemic disease ; short time working ; unemployment benefit ; monetary policy ; business cycle

OECD countries

Discussion Papers

14329

Unemployment

http://ftp.iza.org/dp14329.pdf

English

Bibliogr.

"In the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries use short-time work schemes (subsidized working time reductions) to preserve employment relationships. This paper studies whether short-time work can save jobs through stabilizing aggregate demand in recessions. We build a New Keynesian model with incomplete asset markets and labor market frictions, featuring an endogenous firing as well as a short-time work decision. In recessions, short-time work reduces the unemployment risk of workers, which mitigates their precautionary savings motive and aggregate demand falls by less. Using a quantitative model analysis, we show that this channel can increase the stabilization potential of short-time work over the business cycle up to 55%, even more when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Further, an increase of the short-time work replacement rate can be more effective compared to an increase of the unemployment benefit replacement rate."

Digital



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