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Business cycles and turning points: a survey of statistical techniques.

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Massmann, Michael ; Mitchell, James ; Weale, Martin R.

National Institute Economic Review

2003

183

January

90-106

business cycle ; statistical method

United Kingdom

Business economics

English

Bibliogr.

"The business cycle has an importance in the popular debate which can tend to run ahead of the problems in measuring it. This paper provides a survey of the main statistical techniques that are used to measure the cycle. An application to the UK illustrates that the choice of what measure, or measures, to use is more than a dry academic issue. Inference about the business cycle is potentially sensitive to measurement. Fortunately, however, there is an element of consensus."

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