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The impact of economic growth on inflation and unemployment in Bulgaria

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Article

Kostov, Lyuboslav

SEER. Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe

2017

20

1

85-100

economic growth ; inflation ; unemployment

Bulgaria

Economic development

https://doi.org/10.5771/1435-2869-2017-1-85

English

Bibliogr.

"This research presents the relationship between economic growth, unemployment and inflation in Bulgaria during 2006-2016. The theoretical literature shows that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and inflation whereas the relationship between economic growth and unemployment is negative. Our analysis of how this applied in Bulgaria during this period was conducted by means of econometric verification of information collected via quarterly indicators. When adding the lag effects, the results express three major trends. In the first place, there is a positive impact of growth on inflation in Bulgaria; this mostly finds expression in a lag of one and four quarters, as well as it is expressed in the current period. Secondly, there is a noticeable negative impact of growth on unemployment, a trend that mostly finds expression in a lag period of one or two quarters. In the third place, ‘Okun's Law' is valid, although there is a tendency of a decreasing negative relationship between growth and unemployment in the course of the period as a whole."

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