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The scarring effects of past crises on the global economy

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Article

Fuentes, Natalia Martin ; Moder, Isabella

European Central Bank

ECB Economic Bulletin

2020

8/2020

epidemic disease ; macroeconomics ; economic recession ; business cycle

international

Economic development

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202008_01~e038be4510.en.html

English

"The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is an unparalleled shock to the global economy. First, the shock is multilayered, with the public health emergency compounded by an induced supply shock (i.e. following the adoption of stringent lockdown measures) and a demand shock as a consequence of increased unemployment and heightened uncertainty. Second, it has triggered a multifaceted and sizeable policy response, which has alleviated the adverse effects on economic activity but could exacerbate existing imbalances in the global economy and raise concerns about public and private debt overhangs and future deleveraging needs. Finally, certain sectors have been hit particularly hard by the lockdown measures and behavioural changes on the part of consumers, which are likely to remain in place at least until an effective medical solution has been implemented..."

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