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The future of work in Europe: automation, workforce transitions, and the shifting geography of employment

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Smit, Sven ; Tacke, Tilman ; Lund, Susan ; Manyika, James ; Thiel, Lea

McKinsey Global Institute, Washington, DC

McKinsey & Company - Washington, DC

2020

43 p.

epidemic disease ; future of work ; employment ; skill

EU countries

Discussion Paper

June 2020

Labour economics

http://www.mckinsey.com/

English

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"Discussions of the labor outlook in Europe are understandably overshadowed by the impact of the novel coronavirus crisis. A discussion paper by the McKinsey Global Institute, 'The future of work in Europe' takes a longer-term view of the situation, to 2030.

Through a detailed analysis of 1,095 local labor markets across Europe, including 285 metropolitan areas, it examines profound trends that have been playing out on the continent in recent years and will continue to do so in the future. These include the growth of automation adoption, the increasing geographic concentration of employment, the shrinkage of labor supply, and the shifting mix of sectors and occupations. Some of these trends may be accelerated by the pandemic; our research suggests that a substantial number of the occupations that are likely to be displaced by automation in the longer term are also at risk from the coronavirus crisis in the short term. We also find that the effect of automation on the balance of jobs in Europe may not be as significant as is often believed."

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