Documents Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim 155 results

"Based on survey responses from more than 1,700 managers in Germany, this study elicits employers' perceptions of working from home during COVID-19 and their long-term expectations for the time after the pandemic. Based on employers' forecasts of the share of employees working from home post-COVID, the within-firm intensity of the expected shift is quantified. Many firms expect a persistent shift towards working from home induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Larger firms and firms with pre-COVID use of working from home are most likely to expect a persistent and intensive shift. As the empirical results indicate, underlying mechanisms for the expected shift might include learning effects facilitating an improved perception of working from home, investments in physical and human capital, a general push in firms' digital progress, and the fact that most firms do not observe a reduction in productivity due to working from home during COVID-19."

"The Eurozone debt crisis has revived the debate about deeper fiscal integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Some observers argue that fiscal risk sharing is necessary to make the Eurozone more resilient to macroeconomic shocks and to avoid its break-up. However, the main concerns relate to the issues of permanent transfers across Member States and moral hazard. The 2012 Four Presidents' Report suggested that fiscal integration could include a common unemployment insurance system. A White Paper outlining further steps necessary to complete EMU is to be released by the European Commission in the spring of 2017. This ZEW policy brief presents new research findings on the stabilizing and redistributive effects of a common unemployment insurance scheme for the euro area (henceforth EMU-UI).1 It provides insights regarding its potential added value and discusses moral hazard issues."

"Recent research suggests that employment in young firms is more negatively impacted during economic downturns than employment in incumbent firms. This questions the effectiveness of policies that promote entrepreneurship to fight crises. We complement prior research that is mostly based on aggregate data by analyzing cyclical effects at the firm level. Using new linked employer-employee data on German start-ups we show that under constant human capital of the firms' founders, employment growth in less than 11=2-year-old start-ups reacts countercyclically and employment growth in older start-ups reacts procyclically. The young start-ups realize their countercyclical growth by hiring qualified labor market entrants who might be unable to find employment in incumbent firms during crises. This mechanism is highly important in economic and management terms and has not been revealed by prior research."

"The shift of employment from lower to higher productive firms is an important driver for structural change and industry dynamics. We investigate this reallocation in terms of employment gains and losses from innovation. New employment created by product innovation may be offset by employment losses in related products, known as ‘cannibalisation' or ‘business stealing' effects in the literature, by employment losses from process and organisational innovation and by general productivity increases. The paper investigates this effect empirically with a large dataset from the European Community Innovation Survey (CIS). We find that employment gains and losses increase with technology intensity of the sector. High-technology manufacturing shows the strongest employment gains and losses from innovation, followed by knowledge-intensive services, low-technology manufacturing and less knowledge-intensive services. The net contribution of innovation to employment growth is mostly positive, an exception being manufacturing industries in recession periods."

"A growing literature investigates how firms' innovation input reacts to changes in the business cycle. However, so far there is no evidence whether there is cyclicality in the effects of innovation on firm performance as well. In this paper, we investigate the employment effects of innovations over the business cycle. Our analysis employs a large data set of manufacturing firms from 26 European countries over the period from 1998 to 2010. Using the structural model of Harrison et al. (2014), our empirical analysis reveals four important findings: First, the net effect of product innovation on employment growth is pro-cyclical. It turns out to be positive in all business cycle phases except for the recession. Second, product innovators are more resilient to recessions than non-product innovators. Even during recessions they are able to substitute demand losses from old products by demand gains of new products to a substantial degree. As a result their net employment losses are significantly lower in recessions than those of non-product innovators. Third, we only find resilience for SMEs but not for large firms. Fourth, process and organizational innovations displace labor primarily during upturn and downturn periods."

"Der technologische Wandel erlaubt es zunehmend, Wertschöpfungsprozesse automatisiert und digital gestützt zu erbringen. Diese Digitalisierung und Automatisierung ist im Produktionsbereich beispielsweise gekennzeichnet durch sich zunehmend selbststeuernde Anlagen und Roboter bis hin zu vollautomatisierten und mit anderen vor- und nachgelagerten Geschäftsbereichen vernetzten "Smart Factories" (Industrie 4.0). Im Dienstleistungsbereich sorgen analog intelligente Software und Algorithmen mit Hilfe großer Datenmengen und Internetschnittstellen für die Digitalisierung und Automatisierung von Geschäftsprozessen. Zum Einsatz kommen etwa Analysetools mit Big Data, Cloud-Computing-Systeme oder Online-Plattformen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser technologischen Entwicklungen – oftmals Technologien der 4. Industriellen Revolution genannt – werden in der öffentlichen Debatte vermehrt Befürchtungen laut, dass in Zukunft viele Arbeitsplätze überflüssig werden könnten. Dieses Szenario einer „technologischen Arbeitslosigkeit“ wird von Studien aus den USA gestützt, nach denen jeder zweite Arbeitsplatz gefährdet ist (Frey und Osborne, 2013). Für Politik und Gesellschaft drängen sich damit eine Reihe von Fragen auf: Führt die Automatisierung und Digitalisierung tatsächlich zum Abbau von Arbeitsplätzen? Welche Arbeitsplätze sind gefährdet? Wie verändern sich die Arbeitsprozesse und -inhalte im Zuge des Wandels? Wie verändern sich Qualifikations- und Kompetenzanforderungen? Besteht Anpassungsbedarf zur Sicherung der Beschäftigungsfähigkeit von Arbeitnehmern/-innen? Dieser Policy Brief fasst zentrale Erkenntnisse und Einschätzungen aus Sicht der Wissenschaft und den am ZEW entstandenen Arbeiten zusammen."

"We evaluate the impact of a major European state aid program for broadband deployment applied to rural areas in the German State of Bavaria in the years 2010 and 2011. Using difference-in-differences estimation strategies, we find that aided municipalities have – depending on broadband quality – a between 16.8 and 23.2 percent higher broadband coverage than non-aided municipalities. This increase in broadband coverage – closing the digital divide – results in an increase of on average seven employed individuals living in the respective aid-receiving municipalities while leaving the number of employed or selfemployed individuals or wages unaffected. We therefore conclude that an increase in broadband coverage through state aid prevents rural areas from depopulation, but does not contribute to a further closing of the economic divide in the form of creating new jobs."

"Decisions taken at the start of one's career have long-term consequences and one important decision graduates have to make is whether to be regionally mobile when looking for the first job. We investigate whether being regionally mobile for the first job following graduation rather than to stay in the place of graduation pays off. Existing research on regional mobility mostly focuses on job-to-job mobility. We analyse the determinants of early career mobility and estimate a bivariate probit model to account for the dependency between the migration decisions for tertiary education and for the first job. In order to account for self-selection with respect to migration decisions, we exploit variation in the availability of university places at the regional level. Our results show that there is significant dependency between migration decisions made before and after tertiary education. Secondly, using an IV estimation strategy, we find significantly positive wage returns to regional mobility for the first job."

"The economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband internet: a survey, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 16-056, Mannheim.
We provide a structured overview of the quantitative literature on the economic impacts of telecommunications networks and broadband internet. Differentiating between wireline and wireless technologies as well as broadband availability and broadband adoption, respectively, we review studies investigating the impacts on economic growth, employment and regional development as well as productivity and firm performance. Eventually, the survey does not only allow the identification of main research gaps but also provides useful information for policy makers on the significance and importance of communication networks for social welfare."

"A fast-growing literature shows that technological change is replacing labor in routine tasks, raising concerns that labor is racing against the machine. This paper is the first to estimate the labor demand effects of routine-replacing technological change (RRTC) for Europe as a whole and at the level of 238 European regions. We develop and estimate a task framework of regional labor demand in tradable and non-tradable industries, building on Autor and Dorn (2013) and Goos et al. (2014), and distinguish the main channels through which technological change affects labor demand. These channels include the direct substitution of capital for labor in task production, but also the compensating effects operating through product demand and local demand spillovers. Our results show that RRTC has on net led to positive labor demand effects across 27 European countries over 1999-2010, indicating that labor is racing with the machine. This is not due to limited scope for human-machine substitution, but rather because sizable substitution effects have been overcompensated by product demand and its associated spillovers. However, the size of the product demand spillover – and therefore also RRTC's total labor demand effect– depends critically on where the gains from the increased productivity of technological capital accrue."