Documents Arntz, Melanie 13 results

"Working from home (WfH) has become much more common since the early 2000s. We exploit the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1997 and 2014 to investigate how such a work arrangement affects labour market outcomes and life satisfaction. We find that childless employees work an extra hour per week of unpaid overtime and report higher satisfaction after taking up WfH. Among parents, WfH reduces the gender gap in working hours and monthly earnings, as contractual hours increase more among mothers. Hourly wages, however, increase with WfH take-up among fathers, but not among mothers unless they change employer. This points to poorer bargaining outcomes for women compared to men when staying with the same employer. Controlling for selection into paid employment due to changes in unobserved characteristics or preferences does not affect the magnitude of the effects."

"As the COVID-19 pandemic causes a record number of people to work from home, this disruptive event will likely have a long-lasting impact on work arrangements. Given existing research on the effects of working from home on hours worked and wages, an increased availability of working from home may provide a chance for women to catch up with their male counterparts. Yet, the need to simultaneously care for children during the COVID-19 lockdown may also revive traditional gender roles, potentially counteracting such gains. We discuss the likely effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender gaps in the labour market and at home in light of recent empirical findings and novel statistics on the heterogeneous structure of work arrangements among couples. We construct a novel teleworkability index that differentiates between fully teleworkable, partly teleworkable and on-site jobs and find that in about a third of households the COVID-19 shock is likely to induce shifts in the intra-household allocation of tasks from mothers to fathers."

"Der technologische Wandel erlaubt es zunehmend, Wertschöpfungsprozesse automatisiert und digital gestützt zu erbringen. Diese Digitalisierung und Automatisierung ist im Produktionsbereich beispielsweise gekennzeichnet durch sich zunehmend selbststeuernde Anlagen und Roboter bis hin zu vollautomatisierten und mit anderen vor- und nachgelagerten Geschäftsbereichen vernetzten "Smart Factories" (Industrie 4.0). Im Dienstleistungsbereich sorgen analog intelligente Software und Algorithmen mit Hilfe großer Datenmengen und Internetschnittstellen für die Digitalisierung und Automatisierung von Geschäftsprozessen. Zum Einsatz kommen etwa Analysetools mit Big Data, Cloud-Computing-Systeme oder Online-Plattformen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser technologischen Entwicklungen – oftmals Technologien der 4. Industriellen Revolution genannt – werden in der öffentlichen Debatte vermehrt Befürchtungen laut, dass in Zukunft viele Arbeitsplätze überflüssig werden könnten. Dieses Szenario einer „technologischen Arbeitslosigkeit“ wird von Studien aus den USA gestützt, nach denen jeder zweite Arbeitsplatz gefährdet ist (Frey und Osborne, 2013). Für Politik und Gesellschaft drängen sich damit eine Reihe von Fragen auf: Führt die Automatisierung und Digitalisierung tatsächlich zum Abbau von Arbeitsplätzen? Welche Arbeitsplätze sind gefährdet? Wie verändern sich die Arbeitsprozesse und -inhalte im Zuge des Wandels? Wie verändern sich Qualifikations- und Kompetenzanforderungen? Besteht Anpassungsbedarf zur Sicherung der Beschäftigungsfähigkeit von Arbeitnehmern/-innen? Dieser Policy Brief fasst zentrale Erkenntnisse und Einschätzungen aus Sicht der Wissenschaft und den am ZEW entstandenen Arbeiten zusammen."

"In recent years, there has been a revival of concerns that automation and digitalisation might after all result in a jobless future. The debate has been fuelled by studies for the US and Europe arguing that a substantial share of jobs is at "risk of computerisation". These studies follow an occupation-based approach proposed by Frey and Osborne (2013), i.e. they assume that whole occupations rather than single job-tasks are automated by technology. As we argue, this might lead to an overestimation of job automatibility, as occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often still contain a substantial share of tasks that are hard to automate. Our paper serves two purposes. Firstly, we estimate the job automatibility of jobs for 21 OECD countries based on a task-based approach. In contrast to other studies, we take into account the heterogeneity of workers' tasks within occupations. Overall, we find that, on average across the 21 OECD countries, 9 % of jobs are automatable. The threat from technological advances thus seems much less pronounced compared to the occupation-based approach. We further find heterogeneities across OECD countries. For instance, while the share of automatable jobs is 6 % in Korea, the corresponding share is 12 % in Austria. Differences between countries may reflect general differences in workplace organisation, differences in previous investments into automation technologies as well as differences in the education of workers across countries."

"Der seit 1997 im Dachdeckerhandwerk eingeführte und seit 2003 bundeseinheitlich geregelte, allgemeinverbindliche Mindestlohn führt vor allem in Ostdeutschland auch im internationalen Vergleich zu einer starken Betroffenheit der Branche vom Mindestlohn. Die damit einhergehende effektive Kostenbelastung fällt dennoch begrenzt aus. Auf der Basis von Differenz-von-Differenzen-Schätzungen sowohl im Vergleich zu einer nicht von einem Mindestlohn betroffenen Baunebenbranche als auch auf Basis eines Vergleichs von unterschiedlich stark durch den Mindestlohn betroffenen Beschäftigten des Dachdeckerhandwerks, werden die kausalen Wirkungen im Hinblick auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitnehmerschutz und Wettbewerb untersucht. Dabei zeigt sich, dass sich die mit dem Mindestlohn einhergehenden Lohnzuwächse nur teilweise in Einkommenszuwächse übersetzen. Zudem lassen sich trotz einiger negativer Beschäftigungsergebnisse für die von einem bindenden Mindestlohn betroffenen Beschäftigten keine Veränderung der Gesamtbeschäftigung feststellen. Dies liegt möglicherweise daran, dass mindestlohnbedingte Kostensteigerungen zumindest teilweise über höhere Preise an die Kunden weitergegeben wurden. Eindeutige Effekte auf die Wettbewerbssituation im Dachdeckerhandwerk konnten hingegen nicht nachgewiesen werden, wenngleich sich für Ostdeutschland eine gewisse Verschiebung der Gründungstätigkeit und des Unternehmensbestands in Richtung Ein-Personen-Unternehmen zeigt."

"Many European countries try to reduce seasonal unemployment by subsidizing short-time employment during the winter period. Despite such costly efforts, pronounced seasonal unemployment patterns continue to exist. This puts doubts on the effectiveness of such policy interventions. This paper provides a first empirical assessment of the effectiveness of different subsidy schemes by exploiting the institutional variation in a German subsidy scheme that applies to the construction sector and the variation in local weather and business cycle conditions across 20 years. The findings confirm that generous short-time subsidies reduce individual lay-off probabilities in the case of poor weather conditions. However, the link between weather conditions and seasonal lay-offs is much less strong than expected, making planned capacity reductions the main suspect for causing seasonality in unemployment patterns."

"Die Binnenmigration fällt im internationalen Vergleich in Deutschland relativ schwach aus. Die räumliche Mobilität der Arbeitskräfte kann jedoch einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Wirtschaftswachstum und zum Ausgleich interregionaler Disparitäten leisten, so dass die Identifikation von Mobilitätshemmnissen von hoher wirtschaftspolitischer Relevanz ist. Ziel des in diesem Artikel diskutierten Forschungsprojektes ist es, institutionelle Ursachen einer niedrigen Mobilitätsbereitschaft von Arbeitslosen nachzugehen und dabei auch die Frage zu untersuchen, ob institutionelle Faktoren wie z.B. die aktive und passive Arbeitsmarktpolitik eine Teilerklärung für die große Mobilitätslücke zwischen qualifizierten und unqualifizierten Arbeitskräften in Deutschland liefern. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass eine generöse Arbeitslosenunterstützung die Mobilitätsbereitschaft senkt. Workfare-Programme, die zu einer Absenkung der teilweise hohen Lohnersatzquoten von Geringqualifizierten beitragen, könnten somit zu einer erhöhten Binnenmigration beitragen. "

"Regarding social needs in Germany long-term care is an important issue due to an ageing population. Shrinking social networks are leading to a greater need for a public long-term care system. In 1995 the social long-term care insurance was introduced in Germany. In recent years some drawbacks of the social long-term care insurance structure turned out to be in need of reform: While health insurance is a fully comprehensive system, long-term care insurance only provides limited cover. Therefore, insurance funds have an incentive to shift some services from health care to long-term care insurance. Additionally, there is no free competition on the long-term care market because care packages included in the in-kind transfers are negotiated (with respect to services and prices) between insurance funds and professional care providers. Finally, the financial situation of the German social long-term care insurance is tight. While in the first years after introduction the net results of revenues and expenditures were positive they have been negative since 1999 which is due to an increasing number of benefit recipients. Therefore, we discuss several reform options which have been proposed in order to overcome the financial and structural problems. Suggestions for the income side include the introduction of fixed premiums, a fully funded system, a private insurance, or a citizens' insurance. The introduction of individual budgets is the most popular option for the outcome side. A social experiment is under way in order to evaluate the impact of so-called matching transfers."

Computing power continues to grow at an enormous rate. Simultaneously, more and better data is increasingly available and Machine Learning methods have seen significant breakthroughs in the recent past. All this pushes further the boundary of what machines can do. Nowadays increasingly complex tasks are automatable at a precision which seemed infeasible only few years ago. The examples range from voice and image recognition, playing Go, to self-driving vehicles. Machines are able to perform more and more manual and also cognitive tasks that previously only humans could do. As a result of these developments, some argue that large shares of jobs are “at risk of automation”, spurring public fears of massive job-losses and technological unemployment. This chapter discusses how new digital technologies might affect the labor market in the near future. First, the chapter discusses estimates of automation potentials, showing that many estimates are severely upward biased because they ignore that workers in seemingly automatable occupations already take over hard-to-automate tasks. Secondly, it highlights that these numbers only refer to what theoretically could be automated and that this must not be equated with job-losses or employment effects – a mistake that is done often in the public debate. Thirdly, the chapter develops scenarios on how digitalization is likely to affect the German labor market in the next five years and derives implications for policy makers on how to shape the future of work. Germany is an interesting case to study, as it is a developed country at the technological frontier. In particular, the main challenge will not be the number, but the structure of jobs and the corresponding need for supply side adjustments to meet the shift in demand both within and between occupations and sectors."