Documents Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Vienna 56 results

"Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply."

"DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis."

"Die Finanzmarktreformen nach der Depression in den 1930er Jahren und die Neuordnung des internationalen Finanzsystems in Bretton Woods 1944 bildeten die Grundlage für eine marktwirtschaftliche Ordnung mit stark regulierten Finanzmärkten, die sich im Westen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg etablierte. Die Instabilität des Wechselkursregimes aufgrund der asymmetrischen Rolle des Dollars bewirkte den Zusammenbruch dieses Ordnungsrahmens. Starken Wechselkursschwankungen folgten Erdölpreisschocks, die eine Hochzinspolitik auslösten, welche die Regulierung der Finanzmärkte in den USA und in Großbritannien untergrub. Die durch die Erdölkrise beschädigte nachfrageorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik wurde zudem von einer neoliberalen Doktrin abgelöst, die den Deregulierungsprozess theoretisch fundierte. Der mit dessen kompetitivem Charakter einhergehende Druck auf geschützte Finanzdienstleistungen und auf deren Profitabilität erzeugte eine Welle an Zusammenschlüssen in der Finanzwirtschaft und ermöglichte den dadurch entstandenen Finanzkonglomeraten immer riskantere Geschäfte, die mit dem Einlagen- und Kreditgeschäft eng verzahnt waren. Diese Gemengelage, die an die Ursprünge der Finanzmarktkrise 1929 erinnert, entzündete sich schließlich am Immobilienpreisboom in den USA und mündete in die Finanzmarktkrise 2007/08."

"We live in a world of black and white, with referenda in the yes/no style, politics in 100-second video clips and headline chasing. All of this leads to over-simplification and, in the end, to a seeming reduction of options. We see this all too well in the case of the European Union: one is either for or against it. In this cacophony of dichotomous beliefs and one-sided or even false information we tend to oversee the most important question: do we really want to leave behind what we have achieved in seven decades of a great European project? We still have a narrow window of opportunity to introduce reforms, but time is running out. With Euro-scepticism on the rise it becomes harder each day to tell a convincing and impassioned European story."

"In 2013, EU and USA initiated a new political dialogue regarding a further deepening of bilateral trade and investment relations, the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). In some EU member countries, anti-TTIP street protests and political activists received substantial support. The paper is concerned with the drivers of public support or disapproval of TTIP. In particular, we focus on the role of (dis-)trust in companies and in political institutions for attitude formation concerning economic regulation. We use data from a Eurobarometer Survey conducted in November 2014 to assess the determinants of individual approval or disapproval of TTIP by European citizens. By means of a mixed-level logit regression it can be shown that disapproval is highly correlated with a lack of trust in European institutions and in large companies. Our results moreover indicate that anti-TTIP political activism has a strong impact on TTIP-related preferences."

"We investigate the causes of de-industrialisation and potential for re-industrialisation. Using WIOD data and introducing new measures of "induced value added chains", we directly relate a sector's income share to the net value added flows as induced by domestic and foreign final demand. This method identifies the declining share of manufacturing in domestic expenditures on final demand to be the main cause of de-industrialisation. International trade has a limited impact, though differences in comparative advantage between countries do matter. In addition, the strong decline of relative prices in manufacturing points to an interesting policy paradox: precisely if successful in raising competitiveness and hence productivity growth of manufacturing, they also further its global decline of relative prices. Contrary to the stated objective of re-industrialisation, meaningful industrial policies will accelerate de-industrialisation in the global economy. To raise the income share of manufacturing, policies must target, e.g., competition and productivity growth in services."

"Die Beschäftigungsquoten Älterer unterscheiden sich deutlich in den EU-Ländern. Dieser Beitrag vergleicht die Auswirkungen von institutionellen Strukturen in den Bereichen Arbeitslosenversicherung, Erwerbsminderung und Alterssicherung auf die Beschäftigungsquote der 55- bis 64-Jährigen in vier europäischen Wohlfahrtsstaaten: Deutschland, Österreich, Schweden und Niederlande. Die institutionelle Ausgestaltung der sozialen Sicherungssysteme hat demnach großen Einfluss auf die Beschäftigungsquoten Älterer. Dies führt zu einer Verzerrung der üblicherweise verwendeten Arbeitsmarktindikatoren und erschwert deren Vergleichbarkeit."

"The promotion of Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) is one of the political priorities of the "European Union Strategy for the Danube Region". A growing share of IWT within the regional freight transport market is expected to raise the sustainability of the transport system and provide beneficial regional economic effects. Relatively high energy efficiency and good environmental performance, together with low specific costs, rank among the primary advantages of this transport mode. The study "Danube+20" initiated by the European Commission looked at the employment effects of a 20 percent increase in IWT transport volume in the Danube region by 2020 compared to 2010. The results of the simulation using the multi-regional input-output model ADAGIO indicate that IWT offers a source of moderate additional employment for the river's bordering regions. The employment growth mainly results from induced economic effects, i.e., reduced average transport costs for the entire economy."

"The euro area has – in contrast to the USA – still not recovered from the "Great Recession" 2009 and the following euro crisis. Some fear that Europe could embark into a decade of "secular stagnation" like Japan in the recent past. The US success can be attributed to the application of the strategy of the "three arrows": a co-ordinated expansionary fiscal and monetary policy cum permanent structural reforms. In contrast, the euro area has its hands tied by a self-imposed restriction in fiscal policy (new fiscal rules). Thus, the euro area remains as a growth-stimulating strategy only an expansionary monetary policy by the ECB plus "structural reforms" at the member country level. Austria – after the expiring of the hitherto "EU growth bonus" – has also to look for new strategies to stimulate growth by its own. In simulations with a macro-growth model for Austria alternative growth scenarios are analysed: structural reforms to improve efficiency in product und labour markets, investment in knowledge and innovation (R&D), more globalisation, and traditional demand policies (monetary and fiscal). The most promising strategies are more globalisation and structural reforms plus R&D investments. Most of these strategies would stimulate growth without impairing fiscal sustainability."

"The European economy was of central importance for the worldwide economic development. In pre-industrial times all cultures were agrarian with few cities and similar income. This situation changed fundamentally with the industrialisation of Europe, which caused great income differences. This process started already in antiquity in Greece with a new type of man, acting in democratic structures and continued with the Roman rule of law and the autonomous medieval cities. With Humanism, Renaissance and finally Enlightenment there arose the scientific revolution which engendered technical progress. Given these preconditions Industrial Revolution started about 1800 and increased Europe's economic and technical capacity which caused its dramatic political predominance. In 1900 nearly 70 percent of world GDP was provided by Europe and its overseas offshoots. In spite of two world wars this situation did not change fundamentally, only the share of the offshoots rose dramatically. Beginning with the 1960s the secular process of catching-up set in. Most extra-European cultures started also industrialisation and increased their income. This development is supposed to continue and to reduce regional income differences. As a consequence the share of Europe in world GDP is expected to fall in future. But there remains the fact that the process of industrialisation was created by Europe."