Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. 01/05/2020
Battistini, Niccolò ; Stoevsky, Grigor
2020
3
1 p.
epidemic disease ; economic impact ; economic forecast ; economic growth
Economic development
English
"This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario."
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