Government bond yield spreads determination: a matter of fundamentals or market overreaction? Evidence from over-borrowed European countries
Seremetis, Dimitris Vas. ; Pappas, Anastasios P.
European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies
2013
10
3
342-358
credit ; economic recession ; government policy ; public finance
Public finance and taxation
http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2013.03.08
English
Bibliogr.
"This paper examines through a panel data analysis the determinants of government bond yield spreads for over-borrowed European countries (Belgium, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain) for the period 1990–2010. The results suggest that the aforementioned government bond yield spreads were significantly increased during international financial crises. On the other hand, domestic macroeconomic fundamentals appear to be negligible drivers of government bond yield spreads for the same period. A high debt-to-GDP ratio seems to be an important determinant of spreads only after 2007, when the subprime mortgage crisis had burst out and market sentiment became negative. Thus the paper presents some evidence that sharp bond spread fluctuations may be driven by financial markets' overreaction and investors' herd behaviour during international financial crises. Financial markets seemed to neglect the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals of the six European countries during tranquil periods and seemed to start discriminating more, between countries, during crises."
Digital
The ETUI is co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the ETUI.