Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks
Georgiadis, Georgios ; Jancokova, Martina
ECB - Frankfurt am Main
2017
62 p.
financial sector ; globalization ; international ; monetary policy
Working Paper
2082
Economic development
English
Bibliogr.;Statistics
"Financial globalisation and spillovers have gained immense prominence over the last two decades. Yet, powerful cross-border ?nancial spillover channels have not become a standard element of structural monetary models. Against this background, we hypothesise that New Keynesian DSGE models that do not feature powerful ?nancial spillover channels confound the e?ects of domestic and foreign disturbances when confronted with the data. We derive predictions from this hypothesis and subject them to data on monetary policy shock estimates for 29 economies obtained from more than 280 monetary models in the literature. Consistent with the predictions from our hypothesis we ?nd: Monetary policy shock estimates obtained from New Keynesian DSGE models that do not account for powerful ?nancial spillover channels are contaminated by a common global component; the contamination is more severe for economies that are more susceptible to ?nancial spillovers in the data; and the shock estimates imply implausibly similar estimates of the global output spillovers from monetary policy in the US and the euro area. None of these ?ndings applies to monetary policy shock estimates obtained from VAR and other statistical models, ?nancial market expectations and the narrative approach."
Digital
The ETUI is co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the ETUI.