Ageing population and labour productivity in Bulgaria
Rangelova, Rossitsa ; Sariiski, Grigor
SEER. Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe
2011
14
4
521-544
ageing population ; labour productivity ; life expectancy ; statistics ; unemployment
Demography
http://www.nomos-zeitschriften.de/
English
"Recent literature has shown that it is difficult to ascertain the impact of an ageing population on labour productivity. According to the majority of studies, workforce ageing leads to lower employment and a decline in the professional skills of the employed, so we should expect that it has a negative impact on technological changes and productivity. In this article, we present a review of studies on this issue. After that, an empirical study for Bulgaria is provided using sensitivity tests of long-term projections of labour productivity (to 2050), based on population number and age distribution. A model of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) is applied which allows us to calculate three variants of changing age, number and structure of population, assuming three different rates of improvement in life expectancy – fast, medium and slow. The study confirms that an ageing population has a negative effect on labour productivity. The timeframe is long but, with that limitation in mind, the overall direction of the trend is clear. The article concludes with some policy considerations to help ameliorate the effects of Bulgaria's demographic challenge. "
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