The coronavirus and the great influenza epidemic - lessons from the "Spanish flu" for the coronavirus's potential effects on mortality and economic activity
Barro, Robert J. ; Ursua, José F. ; Weng, Joanna
CESifo - Munich
2020
24 p.
epidemic disease ; history ; economy ; macroeconomics ; comparison
CESifo working paper
8166
Economic development
English
Bibliogr.
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills."
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