The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty
Caggiano, Giovanni ; Castelnuovo, Efrem ; Kima, Richard
CESifo - Munich
2020
11 p.
epidemic disease ; economy ; economic recession ; industrial product ; business cycle ; economic analysis
CESifo working paper
8280
Economic development
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8280.pdf
English
Bibliogr.
"We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%."
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