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Nowcasting employment in the euro area

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Bańbura, Marta ; Belousova, Irina ; Bodnar, Katalin ; Tóth, Máté Barnabás

European Central Bank

ECB - Frankfurt am Main

2023

36 p.

employment ; economic forecast ; econometric model ; unemployment

EU countries

Working Paper

2815

Employment

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2815~1c1e2649d3.en.pdf

English

Bibliogr.

"Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch of different dynamic factor model and bridge equation specifications. We evaluate it in real time over 2013-2022 and find that (i) monthly indicators provide useful information for a timely assessment of employment developments with unemployment rates and sentiment indicators containing most of the relevant information, (ii) the performance of small-scale models is comparable to those based on a larger information set, (iii) the suite performs favourably compared to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections,(iv) forecasting performance deteriorates temporarily at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic period, but the models outperform the benchmarks again thereafter."

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