Documents Bughin, Jacques 5 results

"This paper extends the recent literature, e.g. Leahy and Montagna (Economic Journal 110: 80–92, 2000), in relation to the link between unionization, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and country welfare in an oligopoly market structure. It is shown that the common results, that unions may reduce welfare under FDI while multinational enterprises (MNEs) will strictly trade off union wages at each location, are generally driven by the assumption relating to the scope of the bargaining with the union, namely the 'right to manage' (RTM). In particular, our extension to efficient bargaining (EB) demonstrates that union power may increase welfare in the presence of FDI, while the MNEs' choice between FDI and exports will include profit-sharing arbitrage with unions, in addition to the usual wage comparison considerations."

"We estimate a reduced form of employment at the COVID time through a simple labor market equilibrium that accounts for workers possibly fearing work on-site (FOG) and for firms' strategies such as work from home (WFH). Employment estimates on the French market demonstrate that work allocation during COVID-19 has been affected by FOG and WFH and is affected by both a variety of risks besides health risk, induced by the pandemic. In general, it confirms that employment dynamics may lead to some clear divide based on the health and socio-economics of the working-age population."

"Advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are ushering in a new age of automation, as machines match or outperform human performance in a range of work activities, including ones requiring cognitive capabilities. In this report, part of our ongoing research into the future of work, we analyze the automation potential of the global economy, the factors that will determine the pace and extent of workplace adoption, and the economic impact associated with its potential."

"Automation is not a new phenomenon, and fears about its transformation of the workplace and effects on employment date back centuries, even before the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries. In the 1960s, US President Lyndon Johnson empaneled a “National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress.” Among its conclusions was “the basic fact that technology destroys jobs, but not work.”* Fast forward and rapid recent advances in automation technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics are now raising the fears anew—and with new urgency. In our January 2017 report on automation, A future that works: Automation, employment, and productivity, we analyzed the automation potential of the global economy, the timelines over which the phenomenon could play out, and the powerful productivity boost that automation adoption could deliver.

This report goes a step further by examining both the potential labor market disruptions from automation and some potential sources of new labor demand that will create jobs. We develop scenarios that seek to address some of the questions most often raised in the
public debate. Will there be enough work in the future to maintain full employment, and if so what will that work be? Which occupations will thrive, and which ones will wither? What are the potential implications for skills and wages as machines perform some or the tasks that humans now do?

The report is part of the McKinsey Global Institute's research program on the future of work, and is by no means the final word on this topic. The technology continues to evolve, as will our collective understanding of the economic implications. Indeed, we highlight some of the
limitations of our analysis and scenarios, and areas for further research. The report builds on our previous research on labor markets, incomes, skills, and the expanding range of models of work, including the gig economy, as well as the potential impacts on the global economy of digitization, automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence. "