Documents von Arnim, Rudiger 3 results

"Economic studies on trade liberalization typically highlight positive expected effects. This paper discusses those issues which are frequently neglected, but are nevertheless important for policy-makers. These are macroeconomic adjustment costs and social costs of regulatory change. Our discussion uses the most relevant studies on the economic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) as reference points. We provide a rough estimate of macroeconomic adjustment costs of TTIP in the order of €33–60 billion over a 10-year transition period. Our analysis of regulatory change concludes that assessments have been biased and that the social costs of regulatory change due to TTIP might be substantial. Given the prominence of regulatory issues on the trade agenda, we call for full ex-ante regulatory impact assessment of future trade agreements."

"This paper studies two formal models of long run growth with a medium-run distributive cycle, both of which feature causal links from the rise in inequality to a deterioration of long run macroeconomic performance. Both versions feature an endogenous income-capital ratio: one through the Keynesian notion of effective demand, the other building on induced bias in technical change. A key focus of the analysis is on the assumptions necessary in both frameworks to generate policy implications consistent with the observed decline of the labor share, the income-capital ratio, and labor productivity growth during the neoliberal era. Importantly, both theories: (a) provide space for mutually reinforcing pro-labor and pro-growth policies in the long run, although they differ in the mechanisms at play in these processes; (b) imply a potential tradeoff between pro-labor policies and growth on one hand, and long-run employment on the other; (c) are consistent with the evidence on the distributive cycle at business cycle frequency."