Documents Hein, Eckhard 33 results

"In den USA ist "Finanzialisierung" während der letzten zweieinhalb Jahrzehnte mit einer tendenziellen Abschwächung der Investitionstätigkeit bei gleichzeitig kräftiger Entwicklung des privaten Konsums u.a. auf der Grundlage von Vermögenspreissteigerungen einhergegangen. Im Ergebnis zeigte sich eine trotz schwacher Investitionstätigkeit positive Entwicklung der Unternehmensgewinne sowie eine relativ robuste gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik. Dieses Modell ist aber wegen der latenten Überschuldung vieler privater Haushalte sowie der hohen Auslandsverschuldung mit erheblicher Fragilität des nationalen und internationalen Finanzsystems verbunden. In Deutschland ist es nach dem Wiedervereinigungsboom ebenfalls zu einer tendenziellen Abschwächung der privaten Investitionstätigkeit gekommen - zusammen mit ersten Finanzialisierungstendenzen im Unternehmenssektor. Allerdings stand die unverändert hohe Sparquote der einkommensstarken und vermögenden Haushalte - zusammen mit einem deutlich restriktiverem makroökonomischen Politik-Mix und einer deutlicheren Umverteilung zulasten der Arbeitseinkommen - bisher einem nachhaltigen Anstieg der Konsumnachfrage im Wege. In Deutschland wird die Auseinanderentwicklung von Profiten und Investitionen vor allem durch hohe Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse ermöglicht, bei allerdings deutlich geringerem Wachstum als in den USA. Hieraus ergibt sich zudem eine besondere Gefährdung des realwirtschaftlichen Wachstums und der Finanzsystemstabilität durch Finanzkrisen im Ausland."

"The financial and economic crisis in the Euro area has revealed a number of important flaws in the economic policy framework in Europe. On the one hand, the imbalances, which have dominated European development since the introduction of the euro, are not sustainable; and this is more serious in a period of crisis in particular. On the other hand, it has become clear that the Euro area suffers from a serious lack of institutions and policy concepts, which will not allow coping with deep financial and economic crises unless a deep restructuring takes place. The policy reactions of European governments, the European Commission and the European Central Bank in cooperation with the IMF will, therefore, hardly be able to initiate recovery. On the one hand, some important steps towards financial stabilisation have been made. On the other hand, however, these are combined with restrictive fiscal and wage policies, which will impose deflationary pressure on major parts of the Euro area and thus prevent stabilisation (or reduction) of public debt-GDP ratios. In the paper we will first analyse the imbalances, which have been built up in the Euro area, before we briefly review the policy responses towards the crisis. Since the prescribed fiscal and wage policies are still dominated by the New Consensus Macroeconomics theoretical framework, we will then develop an alternative macroeconomic policy model based on Keynesian and Post-Keynesian principles. It will be shown that stabilising wage and active fiscal policies will have major roles to play in order to cope with the imbalances and to initiate recovery for the EU as a whole. Furthermore, current account targets will have to be included into intra-Euro area policy coordination."

"The current debate on secular stagnation is suffering from some vagueness and several other shortcomings. The same is true for the economic policy implications. Therefore, I provide an alternative view on stagnation tendencies based on Josef Steindl's contributions. In particular Steindl's (1952) book can be viewed as a pioneering work in the area of stagnation in modern capitalism. I hold that this work is not prone to the problems detected in the current debate on secular stagnation: it does not rely on the dubious notion of an equilibrium real interest rate as the equilibrating force of saving and investment at full employment levels, in principle, with the adjustment process currently blocked by the unfeasibility of a very low or even negative equilibrium rate. On the contrary, Steindl's contribution is based on the notion that modern capitalist economies are facing aggregate demand constraints, and that saving adjusts to investment through changes in capacity utilisation and income growth in the long run. It allows for potential growth to become endogenous to actual demand-driven growth. And it seriously considers the role of institutions, power relationships and economic policies for long-run growth – and for stagnation."

"This paper presents an extensive, but non-formalized, critique ofthe concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment(NAIRU) and all similar concepts such as the steady-inflation rateof capacity utilization (SIRCU) which are used by mainstream economiststo argue that there is no alternative, and hence that labourmarkets must be made more flexible while governments must abstainfrom engaging in expansionary fiscal policies except underexceptional circumstances. This is followed by the presentation ofan alternative approach of the labour market, based on a more realisticview of the shape of the unit costs of firms, which argue s thatemployment is essentially determined by the extent of sales in thegoods market rather than by some profit-maximization constraint,and that higher real wages will normally generate a rise in domesticaggregate demand and hence a rise in employment. The paperends with a discussion of the implications of such a view for wagebargaining and macroeconomic policies. What is advocated here isa wage-led growth strategy."

"This study on Germany examines the long-run changes between the financial and the non-financial sectors of the economy, and in particular the effects of these changes on the macroeconomic developments that have led or contributed to the financial crisis starting in 2007 and the Great Recession in 2008/09. The first part provides some descriptive statistics on real GDP growth, on the growth contributions of the main demand aggregates, and the financial balances of the macroeconomic sectors since the early 1980s, and it classifies the German type of development as 'export-led mercantilist'. The second part examines the effects of an increasing dominance of finance since the early/mid 1990s on income distribution, investment in capital stock, consumption and the current account in more detail. The third part links the longrun developments with the financial and economic crisis and examines the causes of the quick recovery in Germany."

"In this paper the euro crisis is interpreted as the latest episode in the crisis of finance-dominated capitalism. For 11 initial Euro area countries, the major features of finance-dominated capitalism are analyzed; specifically, the increasing inequality of income distribution and the rising imbalances of current accounts. Against this background, the euro crisis and the economic policy reactions of European governments and institutions are examined. It is shown that deflationary stagnation policies have prevailed since 2010, resulting in massive real GDP losses; some improvement in the price competitiveness of the crisis countries but considerable and persistent current account imbalances; reductions in government deficit-to-GDP ratios but continuously rising trends in gross government debt-to-GDP ratios; a risk of further recession for the euro area as a whole—and the increasing threat of the euro's ultimate collapse. Therefore, an alternative macroeconomic policy approach tackling the basic contradictions of finance-dominated capitalism and the deficiencies of European economic policy institutions and strategies—in particular, the lack of (1) an institution convincingly guaranteeing public debt and (2) a stable and sustainable financing mechanism for acceptable current account imbalances-is outlined."

"Die deutsche Wirtschaft erlebt gegenwärtig einen starken Aufschwung und die Krise 2008/09 scheint überwunden. Deutschland wächst insbesondere stärker als der Euroraum insgesamt und wird zunehmend als Modell für eine erfolgreiche Krisenbewältigung gepriesen. Die zukünftige Entwicklung scheint mehr von Angebotsverknappungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt als von makroökonomischen Risiken bedroht zu sein. In dem Beitrag wird diese Sichtweise infrage gestellt. Es werden zunächst die langfristigen Ursachen für die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise beleuchtet: die Umverteilung des Einkommens und die Ungleichgewichte auf globaler und europäischer Ebene. Dabei stehen das deutsche Export getriebene, merkantilistische Modell und sein Beitrag zu den weltwirtschaftlichen Ungleichgewichten sowie zur Eurokrise im Mittelpunkt. Es wird geschlussfolgert, dass auch angesichts eines kurzfristigen Aufschwungs die Risiken einer langfristigen deflationären Stagnation in Europa und eines Zusammenbruchs des Euroraums mit fatalen Konsequenzen für Wirtschaftswachstum und Beschäftigung auch in Deutschland nicht von der Hand zu weisen sind, insbesondere wenn Deutschland und der Euroraum sich auch zukünftig auf ein Export getriebenes, merkantilistisches Modell festlegen."

"In this paper the euro crisis is viewed as the most recent episode of the crisis of finance-dominated capitalism. Therefore, two major features of finance-dominated capitalism, the increasing inequality of income distribution and the rising imbalances of current accounts, are analysed for a set of major Euro area countries. Against this background the euro crisis is examined, and it is shown that the economic policy reactions of European governments and institutions, narrowly interpreting the crisis as a sovereign debt crisis caused by irresponsible behaviour of some member country governments, are misguided and will lead to deflationary stagnation and an increasing risk of disintegration of the Euro area. For this reason, finally an alternative macroeconomic policy approach tackling the basic contradictions of finance-dominated capitalism and the deficiencies of European economic policy institutions and economic policy strategies is outlined. It is argued that, on the one hand, an institution which convincingly guarantees public debt of Euro area member countries and, on the other hand, an expansionary macroeconomic policy approach, in particular in the current account surplus countries of the Euro area, need to be introduced."