Documents Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques 121 results

"What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green penetration in a long-difference model, using a shift-share instrument that exploits plausibly exogenous changes in non-EU green innovation. We find that a 3-years change in green penetration per worker increases the employment-to-active population ratio by 0.11 pp. The effect is: persistent both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing; halved by agglomeration effects that increase the labour market tightness; stronger for workers with high and low-education; and present also in regions specialized in polluting industries. When focusing on large shocks in a staggered DiD design, we find ten times larger effects, particularly in earlier periods."

This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

"In this work we develop an agent-based model where hysteresis in major macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, productivity, unemployment) emerges out of the decentralized interactions of heterogeneous firms and workers. Building upon the model in Dosi et al. (2016, 2017), we specify an endogenous process of accumulation of workers' skills and a state-dependent process of entry, studying their hysteretic impacts. Indeed, hysteresis is ubiquitous. However, this is not due to market imperfections, but rather to the very functioning of decentralised economies characterised by coordination externalities and dynamic increasing returns. So, contrary to the insider-outsider hypothesis (Blanchard and Summers, 1986), the model does not support the findings that rigid industrial relations may foster hysteretic behaviour in aggregate unemployment. On the contrary, in line with the recent discussion in Ball et al. (2014), this contribution provides evidence that during severe downturns, and thus declining aggregate demand, phenomena like lower investment and innovation rates, skills deterioration, and declining entry dynamics are better candidates to explain long-run unemployment spells and lower output growth. In that, more rigid labour markets dampen hysteretic dynamics by supporting aggregate demand, thus making the economy more resilient."

"L'article développe l'argument suivant lequel le consensus actuel et l'architecture institutionnelle qu'il implique sont dommageables à une croissance équilibrée et soutenable. La doctrine consensuelle qui dissocie le court terme du long terme, renouant ainsi avec la vieille dichotomie, conduit, paradoxalement, à privilégier le court terme quand les responsables de politique économique mettent excessivement l'accent sur des objectifs nominaux de court terme (inflation, déficits) au détriment d'objectifs réels tels que l'emploi et la croissance. La flexibilité des marchés, qui est le principe guidant la formulation des réformes structurelles, finit le plus souvent par créer de l'instabilité et des modèles de développement fragiles. L'article suggère alors que, pour remettre en ordre de marche l'économie européenne, un changement de paradigme théorique est nécessaire, avec pour objectif de concevoir une politique économique qui puisse permettre l'allongement de l'horizon décisionnel des entreprises, des ménages et des gouvernements."

"This paper is meant to analyse the effects of labour market structural reforms by means of an agent-based model. Building on Dosi et al. (2016b) we introduce a policy regime change characterized by a set of structural reforms on the labour market, keeping constant the structure of the capital- and consumption-good markets. Confirming a recent IMF report (Jaumotte and Buitron, 2015), the model shows how labour market structural reforms reducing workers' bargaining power and compressing wages tend to increase (i) unemployment, (ii) functional income inequality, and (iii) personal income inequality. We further undertake a global sensitivity analysis on key variables and parameters which confirms the robustness of our findings."