Documents future 408 results

"La courbe du déclin du syndicalisme n'a pas de raison de s'infléchir sans une importante remise en question. Il ne s'agit pas de mettre en cause celles et ceux qui représentent les travailleurs dans les entreprises, en première ligne, mais d'interroger les organisations dont les forces et les modes d'action ne semblent plus à la hauteur des enjeux. S'il ne faut renoncer à rien (être dans l'entreprise, s'asseoir à la table des négociations, conduire l'action collective), il faut obtenir plus : construire l'unité, répondre aux préoccupations urgentes, du salaire à l'écologie, en passant par l'égalité de genres, réagir aux mutations du travail, inclure des travailleurs désormais atomisés entre ubérisation et sous-traitance mondialisée. Face à un tel programme, il faut être en mesure de peser. En la matière, l'écart entre les besoins et les moyens mis en oeuvre est abyssal."

"With rising consumer prices, tight labour markets, a resurgence in labour militancy, and a new post-Covid appreciation of the role of government and market regulation, the conditions for renewed union growth seem favourable. But unions have to come from far. Across the OECD, unions have lost members and power, young people increasingly stay away from unions and labour markets have thoroughly changed from what they were. How likely, then, is a new era for trade unions? This article explores four scenarios for the future of trade unions – marginalization, dualism, substitution and revitalization – each grounded in a few assumptions about the environment and behaviour of unions. Drawing on data and research from 12 OECD member states, the article explores middle range theories for each scenario and weighs arguments pro and contra its likelihood. It concludes with a set of critical propositions about the future of trade unions and research about the future."

"Artificial intelligence systems are developing very rapidly in all areas. This is particularly true in the case of work, where we are seeing their use in the robotisation of industrial production or the automation of certain functions in services (from chatbots to robotic process automation). In the context of a prospective study devoted to the use of artificial intelligence for occupational risk prevention, a very diverse project group was set up: occupational health practitioners, artificial intelligence specialists, lawyers, futurists, sociologists, and everyday users of artificial intelligence techniques. Using the method of contrasting scenarios, this project group successively documented variables likely to influence the use of artificial intelligence in the service of occupational health and safety, put forward hypotheses on their possible development over the next ten to fifteen years, and constructed scenarios. These relatively general scenarios were then adapted specifically to the subject studied, in particular during seminars devoted to specific uses (possible uses of artificial intelligence tools in epidemiology and accidentology, technologies for securing working environments using artificial intelligence, advanced robotics using artificial intelligence). Based on all the material produced during the study, the study finally resulted in recommendations of the project group on the use of AI in occupational risk prevention proposed for discussion. The subject is indeed of interest to the whole community of practitioners involved in occupational risk prevention whose practices will certainly be affected by these new technological developments."

"Urgent calls to transform societies toward more sustainability make the practice of anticipation more and more necessary. The progressive development of computational technologies has opened room for a growing use of quantitative methods to explore the future of social-ecological systems, in addition to qualitative methods. This warrants investigating issues of power relationships and discontinuities and unknowns that arise when mingling quantitative and qualitative anticipatory methods. We first reflected on the semantics attached to these methods. We then conducted a comparative analysis on the way the articulation of quantitative and qualitative methods was conducted, based on an in-depth analysis of a set of eleven anticipatory projects completed by several external case studies. We propose insights to classify projects according to the timing (successive, iterative or convergent) and the purpose of the articulation (imagination, refinement, assessment and awareness raising). We use these insights to explore methodological implications and power relationships and then discuss the ways to inform or frame anticipatory projects that seek to combine these methods."

"The multiple crises that the world is facing have diverse and unequal impacts on society at large. Uncertainty reigns as these crises continuously evolve in many different directions. The fast-paced change that we are experiencing challenges societal structures and triggers social unrest. Foresight and scenarios can be useful tools to improve our response to these crises from a long-term perspective. This report starts by explaining how foresight and future scenarios can help to anticipate how to best respond to crises, feed evidence-based policy-making and foster innovation. They can also help organisations of all types and sizes to take coherent and robust action. The report argues that strategic foresight needs to be implemented as a new layer of organisational change. The report then describes the ETUI future scenarios developed in 2020: (1) High-Tech Hives; (2)(Dis)-connected Ghettos; (3) Green Castles; and (4) Eco-Villages, explaining the foresight methodology used to develop them. In order to bring the scenarios up to date, the text maps some of the key events that took place in 2021 and 2022, focusing on the four global crises: climate and energy; rising inflation; war and changing geopolitical order; and social inequalities. To encourage people to use the ETUI scenarios, the report provides guiding questions to help the reader to recognise whether a given scenario is starting to materialise. It identifies key issues that need to be monitored in the coming years. Finally, the text highlights the fact that strategic foresight does not end with the development of future scenarios, and that a foresight process also requires action plans, including roadmaps and contingency plans. It concludes by inviting readers to use the scenarios in their own work environment."

"Cet article ambitionne de saisir les conditions de renouvellement d'un collectif syndical CGT dans un hôpital psychiatrique en partant du cas du secrétaire général. Il donne à comprendre les pratiques mises en œuvre par ce porte-parole pour assurer la continuité organisationnelle alors que nombre de militants sont vieillissants et s'approchent de l'âge de départ à la retraite. Le secrétaire doit ainsi trouver et former une relève, tout en s'employant à transmettre un ensemble de pratiques fondées sur des principes agonistiques et politisés qui ne font pas toujours écho aux attentes des syndiqués, parfois pourtant disposés à s'engager davantage dans la CGT. L'article éclaire finalement les dynamiques de recompositions d'une forme syndicale institutionnalisée et fortement ancrée sur le lieu de travail, tout autant que les pratiques déployées par la figure de secrétaire de syndicat peu étudiée jusque-là par la littérature."