Documents DIW 173 results

"Existing long-term energy and climate scenarios are typically a rather simple extrapolation of past trends. Both qualitative and quantitative outlooks co-exist, but they often focus narrowly on individual perspectives, which is opposed to the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. Therefore, this study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary narratives that give insight into four distinct and extreme yet plausible worlds: base case ‘Business-as-usual', worst case ‘Survival of the Fittest', best case ‘Green Cooperation', and surprise scenario ‘ClimateTech'. Going beyond other outlooks, our narratives focus on changes in the geopolitical landscape and global order, social perspectives on climate issues, and technological progress. These holistic scenarios are designed to overcome previous barriers by an innovative bridging between both qualitative and quantitative methods. We start with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using techniques of foresight analysis, including a facilitated expert workshop. Then, we calibrate the numerical energy systems model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we unite and refine storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. In addition to the narratives (which include quantitative results on e.g. emissions, energy consumption, and the electricity mix), the study generates insights on the key uncertainties and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Additionally, a set of transparent indicators serves as an early-warning system to identify which of the paths the world might enter. Lessons learnt include the dangers from increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives as well as the large role of public opinion and social transition."

"We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We study the effects of the ERA increase on employment and potential program substitution in a regression-discontinuity framework. Germany abolished an important early retirement program for women born after 1951, effectively raising the ERA for women by three years. We analyze the effects of this huge increase on employment, unemployment, disability pensions, and inactivity rates. Our results suggest that the reform increased both employment and unemployment rates of women age 60 and over. However, we do not find evidence for active program substitution from employment into alternative social support programs. Instead employed women remained employed and unemployed women remained unemployed. The results suggest an increase in inequality within the affected cohorts."

"Labor supply in the market for low-paid jobs in Germany is strongly influenced by tax exemptions - even for individuals to whom these exemptions do not apply. We present compelling evidence that an individual's choice set depends on other workers' preferences because firms cater their job offers to aggregate preferences in the market. We estimate an equilibrium job search model which rationalizes the strong earnings bunching at the tax exemption threshold using German administrative data. We then simulate modifications to the tax schedule that remove the discontinuity and thus the bunching at the threshold. Results highlight the indirect costs of (discontinuous) tax policies which are shown to be reinforced by firm responses: Workers who would work anyway are hurt by subsidies benefiting groups who enter the market as a result of tax incentives."

"We study the short, medium, and longer run employment effects of a substantial change in the parental leave benefit program in Germany. In 2007, a means-tested parental leave transfer program that had paid benefits for up to two years was replaced by an earnings related transfer which paid benefits for up to one year. The reform generated winners and losers with heterogeneous response incentives. We find that the reform speeds up the labor market return of both groups of mothers after benefit expiration. The overall time until an average mother with (without) prior claims to benefits returns to the labor force after childbirth declined after the reform by 10 (8) months at the median. We show that likely pathways for this substantial reform effect are changes in social norms and mothers' preferences for economic independence."

"This paper uses a large survey (SOEP) to update and deepen our knowledge about the labor market performance of immigrants in Germany. It documents that immigrant workers initially earn on average 20 percent less than native workers with otherwise identical characteristics. The gap is smaller for immigrants from advanced countries, with good German language skills, and with a German degree, and larger for others. The gap declines gradually over time but at a decreasing rate and much stronger for more recent cohorts. Less success in obtaining jobs with higher occupational autonomy explains half of the wage gap. Immigrants are initially less likely to participate in the labor market and more likely to be unemployed. While participation fully converges after 20 years, immigrants always remain more likely to be unemployed than the native labor force."

"In this paper we exploit a cohort-specific pension reform to estimate the causal labour market effects of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular, we analyze the effects of the introduction of cohort-specific deductions for early retirement on female retirement, employment and unemployment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German pension insurance. We present evidence for sizable labour market effects. In addition to direct effects on women older than 60 we find important anticipation effects before reaching the pension eligibility age. Overall we document that the pension reform leads to a postponement of retirement, an increase in employment and a shifting in unemployment over age rather than a substitution into unemployment."

"Using German survey data, we investigate the relationship between involuntary job loss and regional mobility. Our results show that job loss has a strong positive effect on the propensity to relocate. We also analyze whether the high and persistent earnings losses of displaced workers can in part be explained by limited regional mobility. Applying an event study approach, which controls for worker fixed effects, our findings do not support this conjecture as we find substantial long lasting earnings losses for both movers and stayers. In the short run, movers even face slightly higher losses, but the differences between the two groups of displaced workers are never statistically significant. This challenges whether migration is a beneficial strategy in case of involuntary job loss."

"Die Debatte um Arbeitszeiten und deren Regulierung wird in der deutschen Öffentlichkeiterneut geführt. Empirische Grundlage sind dabei häufig Studien auf Basis des Mikrozensusoder des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP), die teilweise erhebliche Unterschiede in ihrenErgebnissen aufweisen (Rengers 2015, Holst/Wieber 2014). In dem vorliegenden Beitragwird den Ursachen für diese Unterschiede nachgegangen. Eine Anpassung der SOEP-Datenan die Struktur der Beschäftigtengruppen des Mikrozensus und den Definitionen und Abgrenzungenvon Rengers (2015) führt nur teilweise zu einer Annäherung der Ergebnisse. ErstBerechnungen zu „potenziellen“ Auswirkungen von Unterschieden in den Erhebungsinstrumentengeben entscheidende Hinweise. So kommen wir zu der Einschätzung, dass mit demMikrozensus der Anteil der Überbeschäftigten und damit einhergehend der Anteil der Erwerbstätigenmit Arbeitszeitdiskrepanzen insgesamt eher unterschätzt wird. Im SOEP werdendie Arbeitszeitwünsche bezogen auf Nebenerwerbstätigkeit nicht spezifisch erfasst. Inwelchem Maße dies die Arbeitszeitdiskrepanzen beeinflusst, bleibt noch offen. Die Ergebnisseauf Basis des SOEP dürften eher eine Obergrenze darstellen. In beiden Surveys ist beiden Fragen zur gewünschten Arbeitszeit zudem noch zu klären, (1) inwieweit die Aufforderungzur Verdienstanpassung überlesen oder sogar missverstanden wird, (2) inwieweit auchzukünftige Zeiträume bei der Beantwortung mitgedacht und (3)
inwiefern vereinbarte odertatsächliche Arbeitszeit als Ankerpunkte gewählt werden."

"China's government is promoting the shift towards a consumption-based economy since a few years. The explicit goal to significantly raise the percentage of wages in the national household income is integral part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). The changes in the economic strategy are likely to affect the attractiveness of the country to foreign investors. In this paper, we raise the hypothesis that soaring wages negatively affect FDI inflows to China and alter the distribution of FDI over Chinese provinces. In addition, low-wage countries in the geographical surrounding might benefit from the changed direction of FDI inflows. By performing panel models with spatial effects for both Chinese provinces and developing ASEAN countries, regional dependencies are explicitly addressed. We provide strong and robust evidence that the wage increases change the distribution of FDI within China. In addition, we show that the changes in China's economic strategy improve the chances of its low-income neighbours to attract FDI."