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12.06-68885

Princeton, NJ.

"A novel theory of how technological revolutions affect the rise and fall of great powers.
When scholars and policymakers consider how technological advances affect the rise and fall of great powers, they draw on theories that center the moment of innovation--the eureka moment that sparks astonishing technological feats. In this book, Jeffrey Ding offers a different explanation of how technological revolutions affect competition among great powers. Rather than focusing on which state first introduced major innovations, he investigates why some states were more successful than others at adapting and embracing new technologies at scale. Drawing on historical case studies of past industrial revolutions as well as statistical analysis, Ding develops a theory that emphasizes institutional adaptations oriented around diffusing technological advances throughout the entire economy.
Examining Britain's rise to preeminence in the First Industrial Revolution, America and Germany's overtaking of Britain in the Second Industrial Revolution, and Japan's challenge to America's technological dominance in the Third Industrial Revolution (also known as the "information revolution"), Ding illuminates the pathway by which these technological revolutions influenced the global distribution of power and explores the generalizability of his theory beyond the given set of great powers. His findings bear directly on current concerns about how emerging technologies such as AI could influence the US-China power balance."
"A novel theory of how technological revolutions affect the rise and fall of great powers.
When scholars and policymakers consider how technological advances affect the rise and fall of great powers, they draw on theories that center the moment of innovation--the eureka moment that sparks astonishing technological feats. In this book, Jeffrey Ding offers a different explanation of how technological revolutions affect competition among great ...

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Brussels

"This Policy Brief analyses innovations in AI models over the past half year and examines the economic implications for AI companies and policymakers."

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Bonn

"This paper investigates the relationship between China's import competition and the innovation strategies of domestic firms. Using firm level data from Italy spanning 2005-2010 and employing IV fixed effects estimation techniques, we find that the impact of China's import competition on innovation varies depending on the type of goods imported (intermediate vs. final). Specifically, imports of final goods boost both product and process innovation, while imports of intermediate goods reduce both. Additionally, we extend the analysis to consider the role of unions in moderating these responses. We find that, in unionized firms, imports' impact on innovation is mitigated, specifically to protect workers' employment prospects."
"This paper investigates the relationship between China's import competition and the innovation strategies of domestic firms. Using firm level data from Italy spanning 2005-2010 and employing IV fixed effects estimation techniques, we find that the impact of China's import competition on innovation varies depending on the type of goods imported (intermediate vs. final). Specifically, imports of final goods boost both product and process ...

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London

"The climate crisis and the global economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis occur against a background of slowing growth and widening inequalities, which together imply an urgent need for a new environmentally sustainable and inclusive approach to growth. Investments in "clean" innovation and its diffusion are key to shaping this, accompanied by investments in complementary assets including sustainable infrastructure, and human, natural and social capital which will not only help achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, but will also improve productivity, living standards and the prospects of individuals. In this article, we draw on the theoretical and empirical evidence on the opportunities, drivers and policies for innovation-led sustainable growth. We highlight the importance of a coordinated set of long-term policies and institutions that can enable and foster private sector investments in clean innovation and assets quickly and at scale. In doing so, we draw inspiration from Chris Freeman's work on the system-wide drivers of innovation, and his early vision of achieving environmental sustainability by reorienting growth."
"The climate crisis and the global economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis occur against a background of slowing growth and widening inequalities, which together imply an urgent need for a new environmentally sustainable and inclusive approach to growth. Investments in "clean" innovation and its diffusion are key to shaping this, accompanied by investments in complementary assets including sustainable infrastructure, and human, natural and social ...

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Structural Change and Economic Dynamics - vol. 65

"This study examines the effect of various forms of investment expenditure (gross fixed capital formation, R&D and European Structural and Investment Funds) on employment across NUTS2 European regions from 2000 to 2016. We find that the effect of R&D is heavily conditional upon regional characteristics. Only in NUTS2 regions with medium to high levels of innovation is R&D likely to generate employment. Gross fixed capital formation is labour friendly, but less so in highly innovative regions. Accordingly, the more that European regions shift closer to the world's technology frontier, the more that R&D expenditure, rather than investment in physical assets, will be capable of generating positive employment externalities. Amongst European Structural and Investment Funds, we find an especially significant effect for the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (in the more developed regions) and the Cohesion Fund.

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"This study examines the effect of various forms of investment expenditure (gross fixed capital formation, R&D and European Structural and Investment Funds) on employment across NUTS2 European regions from 2000 to 2016. We find that the effect of R&D is heavily conditional upon regional characteristics. Only in NUTS2 regions with medium to high levels of innovation is R&D likely to generate employment. Gross fixed capital formation is labour ...

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Köln

"Sinnbildlich für generative KI steht dabei in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung oft noch die spezifische Anwendung ChatGPT, wie eine Analyse der Internetsuchanfragen und Zeitungsartikel in Deutschland zeigt. Davon profitiert allerdings auch das generelle Interesse an KI nachhaltig. Eine Auswertung von Online-Stellenanzeigen zeigt dagegen, dass Unternehmen nicht nur Interesse an generativer KI zeigen, sondern immer häufiger konkrete Anwendungsfälle in ihren Unternehmen identifizieren und dafür entsprechende Kompetenzen suchen. Dabei nimmt ChatGPT in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2023 ebenfalls eine entscheidende Rolle ein und prägte das Kompetenzprofil vieler Stellenanzeigen. Allerdings lösen sich die Unternehmensbedarfe im zweiten Halbjahr zunehmend von diesem Fokus. Stattdessen nehmen Unternehmen weitere Anwendungen oder Einsatzbereiche sowie die zugrundeliegenden Modelle der generativen KI stärker in den Blick. Sie möchten eigene Anwendungen entwickeln, die auf die jeweiligen Bedarfe und Geschäftsmodelle der Unternehmen abgestimmt sind. Nichtsdestotrotz kommt ChatGPT eine innovationsreibende Wirkung zu, die diese Entwicklung begünstigt hat. Es zeigt sich etwa die Tendenz, dass gerade große Unternehmen personalisierte geschlossene Lösungen entwickeln möchten, in denen Daten das Unternehmensnetzwerk nicht verlassen.

Es könnte ein Indiz dafür sein, dass sich Unternehmen in Deutschland verstärkt mit den Chancen und insbesondere auch den Kosten und Risiken beschäftigt haben, die mit generativer KI einhergehen. Denn der Einsatz von generativer KI wirft urheberrechtliche, haftungsrechtliche und datenschutzrechtliche Fragen auf, die teilweise noch nicht abschließend geklärt sind. Ebenso sind die Auswirkungen des kürzlich verabschiedeten AI Acts noch weitestgehend ungeklärt. Regional betrachtet, sind die Unternehmensbedarfe in den südwestlichen Städten Deutschlands sowie in Berlin und dem angrenzenden Umland besonders hoch. Ähnliche Clusterwirkungen sind in den Regionen um München, Stuttgart, Karlsruhe und Heidelberg sowie um Köln und Bonn erkennbar. Gerade Unternehmen aus dem Technologiebereich und Fahrzeugbau sowie Forschungseinrichtungen schreiben dort viele Stellenanzeigen zu generativer KI aus. In Berlin und München treiben ebenfalls viele KI-Start-ups die Bedarfe zu generativer KI."
"Sinnbildlich für generative KI steht dabei in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung oft noch die spezifische Anwendung ChatGPT, wie eine Analyse der Internetsuchanfragen und Zeitungsartikel in Deutschland zeigt. Davon profitiert allerdings auch das generelle Interesse an KI nachhaltig. Eine Auswertung von Online-Stellenanzeigen zeigt dagegen, dass Unternehmen nicht nur Interesse an generativer KI zeigen, sondern immer häufiger konkrete Anwendungsfälle ...

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Geneva

"Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown immense promise in helping organizations leapfrog social and environmental challenges. The first report in this series, AI for Impact: The Role of AI in Social Innovation, mapped out the landscape of AI deployment by social impact domain, geography and gender and presented case studies of social innovators who have successfully deployed the technology for impact."

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Ecological Economics - vol. 224

"This study features a comprehensive analysis of the status of the circular economy (CE) in the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) and focuses on the CE composite indicator and its specific sub-indicators. The results reveal overall improvements in the implementation of the CE in the period of 2012–2021, although there are significant variations between member countries. Germany is the current leader regarding the use of CE practices, followed by Italy, France, and Belgium. However, there are also notable gaps in critical areas, such as waste management, competitiveness, innovation, and overall sustainability. The study also identifies key factors that influence the implementation of the CE, such as by-product exports, investment in research and development, and waste-management policies. The cluster analysis groups countries into four categories to provide a more detailed view of regional disparities. These findings underline the need for coordinated action at the national and European levels to address remaining challenges and to move towards a more circular and sustainable economy across Europe."
"This study features a comprehensive analysis of the status of the circular economy (CE) in the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) and focuses on the CE composite indicator and its specific sub-indicators. The results reveal overall improvements in the implementation of the CE in the period of 2012–2021, although there are significant variations between member countries. Germany is the current leader regarding the use of CE practices, ...

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Bonn

"Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative innovation with the potential to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. This study examines whether AI is initiating a technological revolution, signifying a new technological paradigm, using the perspective of evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a global dataset combining information on AI patenting activities and their applicants between 2000 and 2016, our analysis reveals that AI patenting has accelerated and substantially evolved in terms of its pervasiveness, with AI innovators shifting from the ICT core industries to non-ICT service industries over the investigated period. Moreover, there has been a decrease in concentration of innovation activities and a reshuffling in the innovative hierarchies, with innovative entries and young and smaller applicants driving this change. Finally, we find that AI technologies play a role in generating and accelerating further innovations (so revealing to be "enabling technologies", a distinctive feature of GPTs). All these features have characterised the emergence of major technological paradigms in the past and suggest that AI technologies may indeed generate a paradigmatic shift."
"Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative innovation with the potential to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. This study examines whether AI is initiating a technological revolution, signifying a new technological paradigm, using the perspective of evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a global dataset combining information on AI patenting activities and their applicants between 2000 and 2016, ...

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